BTIG thinks Apple stock is poised to drop, PepsiCo nears settlement

December 4, 2025

00:04 Josh

Now time for some of today’s trending tickers. We’re looking at Apple, Pepsi and Brown Foreman.

00:10 Josh

Starting with Apple, BTIG analyst Jonathan Krinsky is saying in a note that the stock is poised for a drop. We’re seeing shares down nearly 2% today and year to date, it’s up just a modest 12%.

00:23 Josh

Joining me now, we’ve got Allie Canal.

00:24 Josh

So this one, Allie, is actually a technical take from BTIG. This is their their chartist weighing in and what he’s pointing out is Apple now 25% above its 200 day moving average, long-term trend line. We think it once again is poised for a drop, especially he says as we look to January.

00:42 Allie

Yeah, so they cite a key momentum gauge, basically a measure of when a stock gets too hot and it signals that Apple may be overextended. and historically, that’s led to some give back as we move into January like you said, Josh.

01:03 Allie

Now, of course, when you look at the chart for Apple, when you really digest the story that we’ve been seeing over the past year. Part of the run-up has been fueled by this renewed optimism around Apple’s AI strategy. Now that includes everything from a leadership shakeup and buzz around a potential partnership with Google’s Gemini and and that might power the next version of Siri.

01:31 Allie

But even with all that excitement, BTIG basically saying that the near term outlook could be stretched. We could be in for some bumpiness, some volatility, but if you’re a believer of that long-term story, doesn’t necessarily change the scope of that.

01:48 Allie

And and we’ll see. I mean, Apple has really battled back from some of those lows that we saw to kick off the year again, mostly centered around the TBD factor of AI.

01:58 Josh

Yeah, for sure Apple is one of those names like Google was out of favor earlier in the year and then boom, that stock’s up about 40% in the past six months. What a move.

02:07 Josh

All right, up next, Pepsi, close to signing a settlement agreement with an activist investor Elliot Management. That’s according to the Wall Street Journal. There are no details yet on what the deal could be, but it’s expected to come soon. Remember Elliot unveiled a $4 billion stake in Pepsico back in September and has pushed that company to refranchise its bottling operations and divest from underperforming performers in its food business. What do you make of that, Allie?

02:37 Allie

Yeah, I mean, look, it makes sense considering uh Pepsi shares are down nearly 10% since the start of the year. You’re seeing shares right now trading just around 146 bucks. That values the company at just over 200 billion. Like you said, Josh, Elliot has really been pushing Pepsi to revamp its strategy, uh, lift that lagging share price. That includes calls to refranchise bottling, streamline operations and rethink weaker parts of that business.

03:07 Allie

The company is shaping up leadership, so that’s perhaps the first sign. Uh they’re bringing in Walmart veteran Steve Schmidt as CFO. So, and Walmart, you know, it’s a former Yahoo Finance Company of the year. It’s done very, very well, especially in the face of volatility and we know the consumer is still stretched.

03:28 Allie

So, uh, perhaps this is the start of a turnaround for Pepsi with the help of Elliot Management, but of course, all that remains to be seen.

03:37 Josh

Yeah, Journal’s saying an announcement could come soon, so stay tuned.

03:39 Josh

Finally, Brown Foreman, the company behind brands like Jack Daniels, warning of a challenging landscape heading into 2026. The company forecast low single digit organic net sales and operating income declines.

03:54 Josh

I was seeing, you know, basically reports in line results for its fiscal Q2. Sounds like the street was really seen as kind of better than feared. I see Evercore cited here is saying, in the context of persistent category weakness, expectations were subdued heading into the print, they’re in line on the name.

04:12 Allie

Yeah, and if you compare the year-over-year comps on these earnings, I mean we’re down across the board. Profit fell. Uh it’s still slightly ahead of expectations like you said, largely met expectations but down year-over-year. Revenue also down 6% year-over-year and on an organic basis, sales fell 2%. So even though a better than feared report, it it’s still not great when we look ahead to the future.

04:36 Allie

The company did cite the backdrop heading into fiscal 2026 that that remains challenging. They pointed to consumer uncertainty, weaker barrel sales. They still expect low single digit declines in organic revenue and operating income with CAPEX now trimmed to 110 bucks, uh sorry, excuse me, 110 million to 120 million. Uh, so we’ll see about this name.

05:07 Allie

I mean, look, uh Jack Daniels, Woodford Reserve. I can’t say they’re alcohols I personally drink. I know there’s been a lot of changes when it comes to consumer preference on the alcohol space and they’re also is this big movement, Sober Curious.

05:21 Josh

Did you just say Sober Curious?

05:23 Allie

Yeah, that that’s a new movement. People are curious about about the sober life on social media, especially Gen Z.

05:32 Josh

It’s like that other word I hear like choiceful?

05:34 Allie

Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Well, like there was California sober. now we’re sober curious.

05:40 Allie

So yeah, I wonder what that means though for a lot of these alcohol brands that they’re going to have to adjust to the changing times.

05:51 Josh

Yeah, stock down about 20% this year. It’s been rough. Thank you, Allie. appreciate it.