Bitcoin price prediction 2025: Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of BitMEX, is sticking to his bold prediction that Bitcoin will hit $250,000 by the end of 2025, even after the cryptocurrency recently dipped to $80,600, a level he believes marks the market bottom, as per a report.

Why Bitcoin Price (BTC USD) Drop Isn’t About Institutional Selling

Hayes explained on the Milk Road podcast that the recent drop wasn’t caused by waning institutional interest, but by “basis trades” unwinding, as per a Crypto.news report.

The co-founder of BitMEX said, “These entities are not places where they’re just going to go long Bitcoin,” adding, “The funds were executing basis trades, buying the IBIT ETF while selling CME futures contracts against it,” as quoted in the report.

Top Holders of BlackRock’s IBIT ETF Were Executing Technical Trades

He said the big ETF inflows this year were often misinterpreted as signs of institutions buying Bitcoin. In reality, top holders of BlackRock’s IBIT ETF, including Brevin Howard, Goldman Sachs, Millennium, Jane Street, and Avenir, were executing trades by buying the ETF while selling CME futures contracts.

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Retail Investors Misread Crypto Market Moves

When the funding rate collapsed after October 10, these positions were unwound, with ETFs sold and futures bought back. Hayes noted that retail investors misread this activity as institutions suddenly selling Bitcoin, when it was actually a technical adjustment.

He said, “Retail thinks, oh no, institutions love Bitcoin in the summer, and now they hate it in the fall,” adding, “Therefore, I need to get rid of my exposure as well, not understanding what was driving those flows in the first place,” as quoted by Crypto.news report.

Improving Dollar Liquidity Supports Bitcoin’s Bullish Outlook

Liquidity conditions are improving, according to Hayes. The US Treasury’s General Account has nearly reached $900 billion, close to its $850 billion target, and the Federal Reserve has ended quantitative tightening.

Hayes said, “The balance sheet will be kept constant,” adding, “We are essentially bottomed on the liquidity chart, and the direction in the future is higher,” as quoted by Crypto.news report.

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Bank Lending Could Drive Credit in 2026

Looking ahead to 2026, Hayes expects bank lending, rather than the Fed, to drive credit creation, pointing out that JPMorgan has discussed $1.5 trillion in lending to the industrial sector.

Why Arthur Hayes Remains Confident BTC USD Price Will Hit $250K This Year

He explained that, “Once we actually start to see things actually happen, then we’ll start to see people price a bigger forward on where this dollar liquidity situation is,” as quoted in the Crypto.news report. Hayes remains confident Bitcoin will hit $250,000 by December 31.

FAQs

Who are the top holders of BlackRock’s IBIT ETF?
Brevin Howard, Goldman Sachs, Millennium, Jane Street, and Avenir are among the top holders.

What price does Arthur Hayes expect Bitcoin to reach by the end of 2025?
He predicts Bitcoin will hit $250,000 by December 31, 2025.