• In recent days, Tesla’s previously disclosed US$2.00 billion investment in SpaceX, now nearly 19 million SpaceX shares, has drawn fresh attention as SpaceX’s IPO plans, deep commercial ties with Tesla, and Tesla’s long-awaited rollout of Full Self‑Driving (Supervised) in China reshape how investors view the company’s AI and autonomy ambitions.

• This combination of economic exposure to SpaceX and new FSD access in the world’s largest EV market gives Tesla shareholders a rare dual link to both orbital infrastructure and software-based mobility services.

• We’ll now examine how Tesla’s fresh FSD rollout in China may influence its investment narrative around high-margin software and autonomy.

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Tesla Investment Narrative Recap

Tesla’s story still hinges on whether it can shift from lower margin car sales to higher margin software, autonomy, and energy. The latest SpaceX IPO filing and Tesla’s US$2.00 billion SpaceX stake do not change the near term catalyst: proving that Full Self Driving (Supervised) can scale as a paid service, now including China. The biggest current risk remains regulatory and execution setbacks in autonomy that delay that software monetization.

The most relevant update is Tesla’s formal rollout of FSD (Supervised) in China and its move to a subscription only model. Together, they tie this news back to the core catalyst of expanding recurring software revenue on a much larger installed base, at a time when analysts are closely watching rising AI and autonomy spending, modest net income margins, and the company’s effort to show that software can lift profitability.

Yet against this promise, investors should also weigh mounting concerns about regulatory scrutiny of FSD and early robotaxi incidents that could…

Read the full narrative on Tesla (it’s free!)

Tesla’s narrative projects $140.8 billion revenue and $12.5 billion earnings by 2029.

Uncover how Tesla’s forecasts yield a $415.30 fair value, a 3% downside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Some of the lowest estimate analysts paint a far more cautious picture, assuming revenue growth of about 6% a year and earnings of roughly US$5.5 billion by 2029, so you should know that these forecasts, and even the risk of autonomy approvals being delayed in China and Europe, may look very different once the SpaceX stake and FSD China rollout are fully reflected in their models.

Explore 104 other fair value estimates on Tesla – why the stock might be worth as much as 56% more than the current price!