The International Energy Agency (IEA) today published its World Energy Outlook 2025 , one of the most influential reports in the sector, and in it it devotes special attention to the Iberian Peninsula after the blackout of April 28.

The agency uses the case as a reference for the risks faced by a highly renewable electricity system, where generation is advancing faster than transport and storage infrastructure.

The warning comes as the world has entered the “Era of Electricity” , with a global increase of 40% in demand until 2035 driven by digitalization, electric mobility and climate control.

In this context, Spain stands out as one of the countries that has advanced the fastest in renewables, but also as one of the most exposed to network bottlenecks.

“The speed at which networks are strengthened and new sources of flexibility are integrated will be crucial to ensuring security of supply,” the document states, estimating that global investment in networks will need to double before 2030 to support renewable expansion.

In this regard, the asymmetry of the Spanish process was acknowledged. Since 2015, global spending on generation has grown by 70%, reaching one trillion dollars annually, while investment in electrical infrastructure has increased by less than half.

Today, a problematic scenario has been created with congestion at the nodes, delays at the connection points, and an increase in episodes with negative or zero prices in markets such as MIBEL.

The agency warns that Spain and Portugal are among the European countries with the highest rates of solar and wind energy curtailment , a sign that generation is already exceeding available grid capacity. It also urges strengthening the interconnection with France and Morocco to improve regional security.

Lessons learned from the blackout

The report acknowledges the responsiveness of the Spanish and Portuguese operators after the April 28th collapse, who restored supply in a few hours thanks to robust interconnections and hydroelectric plants with black start capabilities.

He believes that this episode marked a turning point and highlighted the need to build a resilient electrical model that can withstand extreme events and voltage fluctuations in increasingly interdependent systems.

In this way, the Agency identifies flexibility as the new driver of competitiveness. As wind and solar power dominate the energy mix, services such as active demand response, storage, and dispatchable generation will be essential.

Spain, where 50% of generation already comes from renewable sources, needs to accelerate the deployment of BESS systems with grid-forming inverters and mechanisms such as SRAD to avoid further imbalances.

Europe, between ambition and fragility

The World Energy Outlook 2025 indicates that Europe is on track to triple its renewable energy capacity by 2030, but without matching this growth with improvements in efficiency or resilience. The global efficiency rate remains at around 2% per year, when it should be doubled to meet the targets of the Dubai Agreement.

In the case of Spain, the IEA highlights the need to convert renewable potential into manageable energy , focusing on seasonal storage, smart grids and a flexible regulatory framework.

In its diagnosis, the Peninsula becomes an example of the challenges of the electrical systems of the future: “Electric systems must evolve from simple renewable integration to an architecture of total flexibility,” the text emphasizes, calling for the updating of grid codes and balancing mechanisms to adapt to the new electrical reality.

Special mention should also be made of the growing European vulnerability to the concentration of 70% of the world’s refining of strategic minerals in a single country, which affects the production of batteries, wind turbines and solar panels.

For the IEA, diversifying supply chains and strengthening alliances with Latin America and Africa will be fundamental to ensuring the continent’s technological security.

In its conclusions, the World Energy Outlook 2025 describes the Iberian Peninsula as a leading laboratory for the electricity system of the future , where the energy transition is already facing the challenges that the rest of Europe will soon experience. The lesson is that security depends not only on generation, but also on coordination, investment, and regulatory agility .

View the full report

WorldEnergyOutlook2025