Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) is trading around $2,091 today, down 57% from its all-time high of $4,946, set in August 2025. To move past $4,000 again, Ethereum needs to nearly double from its current price.

Ethereum nearly doubling from here is a stretch, but the case for it is stronger than the price suggests. So, we looked at where Ethereum trades today, what needs to happen for the $4,000 price to come back into view.

Ethereum’s Performance So Far in 2026

Since the beginning of the year, Ethereum’s price has been in a steady decline, with only a brief recovery to show for it. Ethereum opened 2026 near $3,100, fell to a low of $1,743 in February, its lowest level since early 2023, and has spent most of the year since then grinding sideways between $2,000 and $2,400.

January and February were the worst stretch of the year for Ethereum. Vitalik Buterin sold millions of dollars’ worth of ETH in early 2026, spooking retail holders, and recession fears pulled institutional money out of risk assets broadly.

Then, March and April brought a partial recovery as market sentiment improved and conversations around the Glamsterdam upgrade picked up. However, Ethereum has given back some of those gains in May, with ETH trading at $2,091 today—down 36% from where it started the year and 57% below its all-time high of $4,946.

Nonetheless, the Ethereum network itself hasn’t reflected that weakness. Roughly 30% of all circulating ETH is now staked and locked away from liquid supply. Accumulation wallets have hit a record 26.55 million ETH this year, up 32% since January. So, the Ethereum price is way behind the fundamentals, and that is exactly what makes the $4,000 question worth asking.

Our Ethereum Price Prediction for End of 2026

Glamsterdam is the event that will decide whether Ethereum moves past $4,000 by the end 2026.

Bull Case: $5,000–$7,500

Under this scenario, we assume Glamsterdam launches on schedule in June, cutting gas fees by 78.6% and pushing throughput to 10,000 transactions per second. ETF inflows also accelerate on the upgrade news, and Bitcoin breaks above $90,000, pulling institutional capital back into altcoins.

If these happen, Ethereum could clear $4,000 in Q3, build momentum, and close the year between $5,000 and $7,500—around the range of Standard Chartered’s year-end target. 

Base Case: $3,000–$4,200

Under this case, we see Glamsterdam shipping, but with no rapid price reaction. ETF inflows also stay positive but slow, and Bitcoin rallies above $85,000 without a decisive breakout.

In this scenario, Ethereum could clear $3,000 in Q3 and test $4,000 in Q4, closing the year in the $3,000-$4,200 range. Citi’s near-term target of $3,175 falls within this band. Our prediction is that Ethereum could briefly hit $4,000, but only toward year-end.

Bear Case: $1,500–$2,000

For our bear case, we assume that Glamsterdam would be delayed until Q4 or launches with deployment bugs. Bitcoin drops below $70,000 amid inflation data or Fed hawkishness, and ETF outflows return.

In this scenario, ETH could break below its $2,085 support, retest the February 2026 low near $1,743, and end the year at or below today’s price. If that happens, Ethereum moving past $4,000 becomes a 2027 conversation.

What Could Push Ethereum Back Above $4,000?

Three things are already in motion that help Ethereum reach $4,000 this year. 

The Glamsterdam Upgrade

Glamsterdam is the biggest execution-layer overhaul Ethereum has attempted since the Merge. This upgrade cuts gas fees by 78.6%, pushes throughput to 10,000 transactions per second, and brings block building on-chain through a process called ePBS. It targets June 2026, though developers caution the date could slip to Q3.

Almost every major Ethereum upgrade has produced a price move in the weeks following deployment. The Merge produced a significant pre-launch rally before the actual “sell the news” correction. The Pectra upgrade in May 2025 coincided with ETH climbing from $1,800 toward $4,946 over three months. 

If Glamsterdam launches on schedule without bugs, the same institutional buyers who bought the Pectra run will invest again, and ETH will have a better chance of moving past $4,000 this year.

ETF Inflows and Record Accumulation

Spot Ethereum ETFs pulled in $187 million in their strongest weekly inflow of 2026, and cumulative net inflows have reached $12.05 billion. At the same time, whales hit a record 26.55 million ETH, up 32% year-to-date.

The combination of ETF buying and on-chain accumulation points to serious institutional positioning that the price hasn’t caught up to yet, which bodes well for Ethereum’s price moving past $4,000 again this year.

BlackRock’s Staked ETH ETF

BlackRock has filed for ETHB—a staked Ethereum ETF that would distribute native Ethereum staking yield directly to shareholders. If the SEC approves it, ETHB will become the most compelling Ethereum investment product ever offered to retail and institutional investors.

BlackRock’s existing ETHA already holds roughly $11 billion in ETH. ETHB would open the yield argument to millions of investors who currently hold bonds and savings products with similar return profiles. With this new product, Ethereum gains a new pool of buyers that has never existed before, increasing the potential for Ethereum to reach $4,000 this year.

Will Ethereum Get Back Above $4,000?

Ethereum has a great shot at hitting $4,000, yes, and we think it could happen before the year ends, but barely. Our base forecast puts ETH testing $4,000 by Q4, with Glamsterdam launching in June as the primary driver and ETF inflows building through Q3. 

However, the one condition that could delay ETH reaching  $4,000 into 2027 is if the Glamsterdam update stalls. If the June deployment slips to Q4, the entire catalyst timeline shifts by a quarter, and Bitcoin’s post-halving peak window of 12 to 18 months would close before ETH can build momentum from the upgrade. 

But if Anza confirms a testnet transition before June, the upgrade timeline holds, and Ethereum will likely start pricing in Glamsterdam well before mainnet—so the best entry point could be right now.