The nation’s attention is focused on the presidential election, but several state races Tuesday could shape the energy sector for years to come.

From Arizona to New Hampshire, state elections will determine control of legislative chambers and key regulatory bodies that can significantly shift energy policy. On the line are renewable energy requirements, incentives for electric vehicles — and plans to tie utility rates to energy efficiency, customer service and use of renewables.

“Energy is complicated,” Democratic state Rep. Kat McGhee, ranking member on New Hampshire’s House Science, Technology and Energy Committee, said in an interview. “Goals around achieving lowered emissions or net zero [have] been a political football to even put a stake in the ground.”

Here are eight races to watch at the state level that could influence the energy mix.

Arizona regulators and lawmakers

Arizona is the sunniest state in the country, but only about 10 percent of its electricity came from solar power last year.

Democrats are pushing to change that with Tuesday’s election.

A flip at the state Legislature or Arizona Corporation Commission — which are controlled by Republicans — could pave the way for greater state support of renewable power.

On the legislative side, Democrats need to pick up only two seats in each chamber to win control.

Democratic state Sen. Priya Sundareshan, ranking member on the Natural Resources, Energy and Water Committee, said in an interview that her party aims to pass “long overdue” legislation to propel Arizona toward an energy transition.

This includes codifying a renewable portfolio standard after the Arizona Corporation Commission, the state’s powerful utility regulator, rolled backed renewable and efficiency rules in February. The commission’s abandoned standard required utilities to source 15 percent of electricity from renewables by 2025.

Sundareshan called the rollback “the opposite direction of which it should go,” emphasizing that a Legislature controlled by Democrats would aim to legislate a new, more ambitious standard — though questions remain about lawmakers’ authority to do so.

Democrats running for the Arizona Corporation Commission also want to bring back the renewable portfolio standard and have floated removing fees on rooftop solar.

Jonathon Hill, a Democratic candidate for the commission, said at a debate that there’s “no reason why Arizona should not be running entirely on solar.” Republicans pushed back against Hill, saying solar isn’t always reliable and that it has been subsidized for too long.

With utility rates climbing and three Republican commission seats up for election, Democrats see an opportunity to gain control of the five-member body.

Residential electricity prices surged 7.4 percent statewide from summer 2023 to summer 2024.

If they win at least two of the three open seats, Democrats will control the commission. If that happens, Democrats’ top priority is “making sure that we have affordable rates,” said candidate Ylenia Aguilar, who topped the Democratic primary.

Texas oil incumbent

The chair of the Texas oil and gas regulator is up for reelection — and energy companies have lined up to support her.

Republican incumbent Christi Craddick has raised more than $10 million in her quest to remain at the helm of the Texas Railroad Commission, according to the nonprofit OpenSecrets and the Texas Ethics Commission. Democratic challenger Katherine Culbert has raised a little more than $19,000, records show.

The gap in fundraising speaks to both how much the oil and gas industry supports the current commission’s posturing and how little attention to races for the Railroad Commission race.

An Oct. 15 University of Houston poll found that Craddick led Culbert by 7 points. But when University of Texas in 2017 asked respondents to correctly identify which state agency regulates oil and gas, only 42 percent correctly said it was the Railroad Commission.

The Railroad Commission’s three members are responsible for granting drilling and flaring permits, approving rules that impact the industry, fining violators and overseeing the state’s orphaned well plugging program. Despite its name, the agency has no oversight of railroads.

The three current commissioners have been vocal in their opposition to policies enacted by the Biden administration, including rules limiting flaring of natural gas off oil wells, the pause of liquefied natural gas export permits and rules limiting methane emissions from oil and gas infrastructure.

Critics, including Culberson, have alleged that Craddick and other commissioners have been too lax on regulating the industry as they point out personal and professional ties. A report from Texas Monthly found the family of Republican state Rep. Tom Craddick — including his daughter Christi Craddick — earned about $10 million in 2022 from oil and gas rights.

The Texas Oil and Gas Association, the state’s biggest oil and gas industry group, did not respond to a request for comment. The Culbert and Craddick campaigns did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

“No matter what politically motivated critics try to say, our commitment to you is unwavering, and we’re proud to lead by example,” Craddick said in an August post on the social platform X.

Members of the Railroad Commission can accept campaign contributions at any point during their six-year terms, said Virginia Palacios, executive director of Commission Shift, a nonpartisan group that advocates for changes to the commission.

“Because of the lack of limitations on donations, it calls into question whether commissioners can make unbiased decisions while they receive donations from industry,” Palacios said. “They often receive contributions before and after key decision moments, which gives the appearance of companies vying for favor through campaign donations.”

3 Great Lakes legislatures

Control of legislative chambers is up for grabs Tuesday in three swing states in the Great Lakes region.

They include blue Minnesota and Michigan, where Republicans are trying to break Democratic trifectas that control both legislative chambers and the governor’s mansion. In Wisconsin, Democrats are trying to end a 14-year GOP stranglehold on the Legislature.

Minnesota’s Democratic-Farmer-Labor (DFL) party has controlled the state House of Representatives for the last five years, but by a relatively narrow margin. Continuing that run will depend on the outcome of a dozen or so races in an election where Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz is the running mate to Vice President Kamala Harris on the Democratic presidential ticket.

In an op-ed in the Minnesota Star Tribune, House Speaker Melissa Hortman (DFL) cited the party’s work on a variety of progressive priorities, including tackling climate change. But she said there’s more work to be done.

“We cannot trust Republicans to take action on climate because far too many of their extremist candidates don’t even believe it’s real,” Hortman wrote.

The margin in Minnesota’s Senate is razor thin: A single race will dictate which party controls the chamber. Democrat Ann Johnson Stewart faces Republican Kathleen Fowke in a race to replace former Assistant Majority Leader Kelly Morrison — who resigned to run for Congress — in a district representing the western suburbs of Minneapolis.

Johnson Stewart is a former state senator whose district was redrawn in 2022. She chose not to run against Morrison. Fowke, a real estate agent and wife of former Xcel Energy CEO Ben Fowke, lost to Morrison that same year.

In Michigan, the GOP hopes to flip a slim 56-54 Democratic majority in the state House.

Unlike in 2022, when Democrats in the state campaigned on abortion rights and helped the party to a political trifecta, there’s no ballot initiative this year to drive turnout.

But prominent in political discussions across the state this fall is the topic of electric vehicles and how the home of the nation’s automotive capital views efforts by the Biden administration to boost EV adoption in the U.S. — a priority backed by Michigan Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer.

The loss of political trifectas in Minnesota or Michigan wouldn’t necessarily jeopardize clean energy and climate laws already enacted in those states, but it would potentially block lawmakers from taking further action to slash planet-warming emissions.

Contrary to its neighbors, the GOP is playing defense in statehouse elections in Wisconsin, where legislative maps were redrawn after a 2023 election left liberals with control of the state Supreme Court.

Democratic Gov. Tony Evers has regularly butted heads with the GOP-controlled Legislature since he was elected in 2018. And while it’s considered unlikely that Democrats will win control of the state Assembly or Senate — where only half the seats are up for grabs — the party could cut into Republicans’ strong majorities.

Pennsylvania statehouse

The Keystone State is the largest battleground state this year with 19 electoral votes, and it has the country’s only split legislature. Republicans hold a three-seat majority in the Senate in Pennsylvania, while Democrats cling to a single-seat edge in the House.

If Republicans eke out control of the Legislature in November, their power would be dampened by Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro’s veto.

But if Democrats win majorities in both chambers, they’d have a clear path to jump-starting Shapiro’s stalled energy plan.

The governor’s flagship energy proposals are the Pennsylvania Climate Emissions Reduction Act (PACER) and Pennsylvania Reliable Energy Sustainability Standard (PRESS).

PACER is a cap-and-trade program that would effectively charge utilities for producing CO2 and redistribute 70 percent of the revenues to Pennsylvanians as an electric bill rebate. The remainder of the revenue would go to support projects meant to reduce air pollution and create jobs, according to a news release from the governor’s office.

PRESS would boost Pennsylvania’s standard to require 35 percent of power from “clean” by 2035, including wind, solar, small nuclear reactors and fusion.

According to Spotlight PA, state Senate Majority Leader Joe Pittman (R) said any form of a cap-and-trade program would be “a very difficult piece to support.” But he expressed more openness to revising the renewable portfolio standard.

Nick Jacobson, a 23-year-old Democrat running for a spot in the Pennsylvania House, said there “has not been much legislative action on either proposal in either house.”

“I wouldn’t say they’d at all be done deals under Democratic control,” Jacobson said in an interview, but “they may be a starting point for negotiations.”

Jacobson is facing an uphill election against state Rep. David Rowe (R). But Jacobson said he and some other Democrats could support a GOP-sponsored bill that would make solar companies plan for and pay for uninstalling panels at the end of their life.

New Hampshire showdown

The Granite State is under narrow control by Republicans, who have used their legislative majority to pass a law to commit the state to fight federal regulations or executive orders that would directly or indirectly close a New Hampshire power plant.

That protection extends to the state’s many natural gas plants and lone coal plant — the last one left operating in New England.

If Democrats take the legislative and executive reins after what appears to be a tight race, they say they’ll reverse course: possibly repealing that legislative protection and transitioning to clean and local energy sources.

The Democratic Party wants to “diversify our supply [and] emphasize ‘local, sustainable’ in order to lower our dependency for external fossil fuels being brought into the state. Instead, keep those dollars in the state,” said McGhee, the Democratic state representative.

State Rep. Thomas Cormen (D) said one way to do that is to “promote storage so that green energy can be stored and then released at times that it’s not being produced such as at night.”

Another policy championed by Democrats is performance-based utility rate making.

Democrats aim to link utility revenues with their performance in areas such as efficiency, customer service, and renewable integration. Though the caucus isn’t fully in agreement on which metrics may be tied to rates, McGhee and Cormen said a change would make utilities more responsive and incentivize renewable energy efforts.

Republicans blocked a plan for performance-based rate-making that Democrats introduced earlier this year.

State Rep. Michael Vose (R), chair of the House Science, Technology and Energy Committee, worries that would overstep the Legislature’s authority. He says setting rates is an issue for utilities and regulatory agencies.

Still, Cormen and Vose said there is room for bipartisanship in the state’s energy policies.

Vose said both parties would be open to simplifying taxes on electricity generators and programs that would incentivize advanced manufacturing and nuclear small modular reactor firms to set up shop in the state.

“I look forward to working with my colleagues on making these happen,” Vose said.