Virginia’s largest utility, Dominion Energy, on Tuesday filed an update to its long-term electricity generation plan showing a decrease in the amount of potential renewable energy sources it could use in the coming years compared to previous plans

Dominion’s revamped, non-binding Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) looks 15 years into the future to detail how power will be provided and calls for an “all-of-the-above” approach that includes more reliance on natural gas. The utility’s previous plan projection said about 95% of electricity generation would be pulled from renewable sources. Tuesday’s updated plan calls for  about 80% of generation to be spurred by renewables.

“We are experiencing the largest growth in power demand since the years following World War II,” said Ed Baine, president of Dominion Energy Virginia. “No single energy source, grid solution or energy efficiency program will reliably serve the growing needs of our customers.” 

Although subject to change as technology and demands evolve, the IRP is a glimpse into Dominion’s generation project proposals, which are paid for by ratepayers. This year’s update is a fine-tune adjustment to the plan unveiled last year, which is when the public learned that the utility was reviving plans for natural gas plants, one of which was proposed in Chesterfield County to meet growing energy needs, heightened by Dominion’s concern over renewable energy’s ability to produce enough power.

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Environmental and ratepayer groups decried last year’s plan and said it would contribute to the emission of greenhouse gasses that scientists say are exacerbating climate changes’ increasing storm intensity and frequencies. 

Critics also said the utility’s IRP conflicted with the Virginia Clean Economy Act, which passed in 2020 with the goal of decarbonizing Dominion’s grid by 2045 by transitioning to renewable generation sources. 

The law allows for a carbon-emitting, fossil fuel facility to remain online past 2045 if  grid reliability or the ability to provide enough power would be risked without it. Detractors countered by saying those risks are not a guaranteed reality and the plan would leave ratepayers on the hook for a polluting facility that will need to be shut down in years to come.

“Dominion’s latest energy plan blatantly disregards the financial well-being and health of Virginia families,” said Kate Asquith, deputy director of energy and operations at Clean Virginia, a group founded by millionaire Michael Bills to counter Dominion’s influence in the state legislature. “By continuing to invest in gas-burning facilities, Dominion is not just raising bills—it’s locking Virginians into a future of higher costs and greater pollution.”

The IRP update this year considers four different plans based on different regulation requirements. The most realistic plan, which incorporates rules under the VCEA and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency could increase a current monthly bill of $142.77 to $214.24 by the end of 2039 for a typical residential customer using 1,000 kilowatts.

Increased grid demand is the key driver of the updated forecast, with 5.5% annually now expected, compared to the 5.1% annual use projection Dominion relied on last year.  The new forecast also projects about 45 gigawatts of electricity that will be needed for use during the summer in 2039, an additional 6 gigawatts of power compared to what was expected last year. 

The utility is also pushing to own more generation sources to avoid purchasing power during peak demand moments in the summer and winter when cooling and heating units are cranking and the electricity cost skyrockets. Dominion’s plan also related an increased concern over the ability for solar, wind and battery storage sources to produce as much power as possible during cloudier, darker and colder months, known as an effective load carrying capability, or ELCC.

Costs for electricity during extreme weather rising; Dominion says nothing to worry about — yet

The Data Center Coalition, a group advocating on behalf of the data center industry that is proliferating in Northern Virginia, has said they are committed to addressing the concern over renewables, even as fossil fuel generation sources that have been providing baseload power begin retiring under new state policies. 

“The data center industry is leaning in as a collaborative partner with utilities, grid operators, policymakers, regulators, and other stakeholders at this transformative moment to advance and accelerate grid modernization and energy infrastructure to support Virginia’s — and the nation’s — economic growth and competitiveness,” said Josh Levi, president of the Data Center Coalition.

Almost 6 gigawatts, up from about 3 gigawatts, of new natural gas fired generation is included in the plan, the equivalent of five more of the 1 gigawatt plants Dominion has proposed in Chesterfield. Tuesday’s IRP didn’t suggest locations for new facilities beyond the use of brownfield sites, which are already-disturbed lands that require remediation.

The plan also explores adding combined cycle steam turbines to the generation mix, which could create electricity from the gas turbines to reduce emissions while also operating “more often to serve customers’ everyday loads.”

Nuclear is another part of the proposed generation plan, with the development of five small modular reactors slated to start in 2035. The update mentioned SMR development advancements as examples of the technology’s progression, including the design approval of NuScale Power, which was canceled amid ballooning costs, and the approval of TerraPower’s construction permit in May. 

The renewable generation sources included in the plan include: about 3.4 gigawatts of offshore wind the utility is pursuing; about 12 gigawatts of solar; and 4.5 gigawatts of battery storage. Along with the IRP update, Dominion also filed an application for about 1 gigawatts worth of solar projects that the State Corporation Commission will review. 

The updated IRP discussed  how energy efficiency can reduce Virginia’s energy needs by 314 megawatts in the summer in 2024 and 553 megawatts by 2029.

Dominion is also considering blending hydrogen with natural gas to further reduce emissions, and is performing a company analysis of environmental justice communities in Virginia. So far, it found that 78% of the total geographical area and 89% of the population qualify as EJ communities under the Virginia Environmental Justice Act that passed in 2020.

“With such a large proportion of the Commonwealth defined through the VEJA…as an EJ Community, avoidance is not possible,” the utility wrote.