To examine the perception of a trade-off between climate impact and returns in renewable energy investments, MSCI has analyzed the returns of private investments in the renewable electricity subindustry (renewables) compared to those in the drilling, exploration, production, and integration of oil and gas subindustries (oil and gas).

Although the two subindustry groups may differ in their operations, business models, and supply chains, a comparative analysis can provide insight into the investment appetite and relative robustness of the exit markets in both spaces.

In recent years, private fund exits from renewable energy investments have generated higher aggregated investment multiples (gross of fees) compared to exits in oil and gas. Looking at investment multiples, which compare total investments and total revenue at the ownership level, renewable exits surpassed those of oil and gas in each year from 2016 to 2023, up until the fourth quarter of 2023.

To incorporate the role of cash flow timing in returns, we analyzed the internal rate of return (IRR) (gross of fees) for both subindustry groups. Our findings suggest that the median IRRs for exits in renewables and oil and gas were largely aligned with the investment multiple results, further reinforcing the outstanding performance, up until the fourth quarter of 2023.

Therefore, the perception of a potential trade-off between climate impact and performance may not reflect the financial returns of renewable investment exits since 2016, making these assets more relevant to a broader range of energy investors, regardless of their climate focus. In MSCI‘s blog analysis from the third quarter of 2023, the relatively strong exit market for renewables in recent years was associated with an increase in net capital flows, providing the industry with the necessary capital to achieve the net-zero emissions goal.