Analyst Says Tesla (TSLA) In ‘Very Early Innings,” Sees “Compounding Throughout The Decade’

December 24, 2024

Fahad Saleem

5 min read

We recently published a list of Top 10 AI Stocks to Watch Right Now. In this article, we are going to take a look at where Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) stands against other top AI stocks to watch right now.

Tom Hancock, GMO U.S. quality ETF portfolio manager, said in a latest program on CNBC that the NASDAQ has become “risky” bet amid a lot of volatility.

“It’s become not really an index; it’s become a single bet. So it it’s a very risky thing to invest in. It’s not what I think you would want from a sort of diversified investor. It’s probably going to give you more volatile returns next year, and I’d a little bit worry that the AI rally has extended itself. So uh those may be uncomfortably volatile returns.”

Hancock said investors should also pay attention to some of the “old economy” stocks. He thinks AI stocks have become a “hype trade” and any “hiccup” in the economy could result in these stocks crashing. He also urged investors to look for stocks outside the US.

Hancock believes AI gains are now set to broaden out to smaller companies that have not received a lot of attention so far.

For this article we picked 10 AI stocks currently trending based on latest news. With each stock we have mentioned the number of hedge fund investors. Why are we interested in the stocks that hedge funds pile into? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 275% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 150 percentage points (see more details here).

Analyst Says Tesla (TSLA) In ‘Very Early Innings,” Sees “Compounding Throughout The Decade’

Number of Hedge Fund Investors: 99

Dan Crowley from Nightview Capital explained his bull case thesis for Tesla during a program on Schwab Network:

“I mean, you know, the next wave of growth that we’re seeing in Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) are in the multi-trillion dollar adjustable market. So that’s autonomy and humanoid robots. And ultimately, those are AI products. I believe that the market itself is doing a bit of a repricing, but you know, ultimately we’re talking about the future of transportation here. And when we look out, ultimately, we believe the dominant automotive platform will be EVs paired with autonomy. The legacy OEMs are either cutting or removing both their EV and autonomy programs. So Tesla is in a basically a one-on-one position to capture that market if things proceed as we expect.

Looking beyond the recent spike in Tesla shares amid Donald Trump’s victory, Tesla’s fundamentals are challenged. How? Tesla Inc’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) key robotaxi event was short on details. Notably absent was the discussion of a “more affordable” model that Musk had previously mentioned to boost confidence in Tesla’s vehicle sales growth outlook.

What about the $30,000 price tag claim?

Musk has indicated that the Cybercab will have a production cost of approximately $30,000. Operating within the robotaxi fleet is projected to cost around $0.20 per mile. With a production cost of $30,000, the retail price of the Cybercab is likely to exceed this figure. For instance, if the Cybercab is priced at $30,000 per unit, that translates to $15,000 per seat. In contrast, the average price per passenger seat in Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA)’s most affordable long-range RWD Model 3—factoring in full self-driving (FSD) licensing—is under $10,000 ($29,990 post-incentive vehicle price plus $8,000 for the FSD license, divided by four passenger seats). Regarding operational costs, while the Cybercab is expected to cost $0.20 per mile, charging the Model 3 is estimated at under $0.10 per mile, leaving a significant margin to cover maintenance and downtime.

There is a lot of hype around Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) robo taxis but many believe they will not be enough to fix the company’s long-term challenges.

What are these challenges?

Tesla Inc’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) product lineup is showing signs of stagnation, with over 95% of sales still coming from the Model 3 and Model Y. Meanwhile, competitors are rolling out more advanced models. Even Rivian’s CEO suggested Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) could be nearing market saturation for these models. According to Reuters, Tesla’s market share in Europe is slipping as legacy automakers like BMW post stronger sales. Chinese competitor BYD is also gaining ground in Europe, despite talk of tariffs.

Polen Focus Growth Strategy stated the following regarding Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) in its Q3 2024 investor letter:

“The largest relative detractors during the quarter were Apple, Airbnb, and Tesla (not owned). We’ve spoken at length about our rationale for not owning Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA). In short, the market seems to be pricing in a lot of positive optionality for this company in the near-to-intermediate term (and particularly a fully autonomous fleet of electric vehicles in the medium term). What exists today is an automobile manufacturer limited to the higher-income segment that is increasingly challenged to sell vehicles when interest rates are not zero. We continue to question the company’s long-term growth profile and governance.”

Overall, TSLA ranks 8th on our list of top AI stocks to watch right now. While we acknowledge the potential of TSLA, our conviction lies in the belief that under the radar AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns, and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than TSLA but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.

Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.

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