The United Steelworkers union is counting on renewable energy projects to offset job losses at oil refining and petrochemical plants, a union official has told Reuters, adding that some 17,000 new union jobs could be replaced thanks to the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). 

The USW–which represents some 30,000 workers from North American crude oil refinery and petrochemical plants–appears to remain optimistic even in the event of a victory for Donald Trump in next week’s elections. Trump has promised to reverse the IRA if he wins. 

“The Inflation Reduction Act was a bipartisan bill,” USW District 13 director Larry Burchfield told Reuters. “There’s a lot all sewed up in the IRA. It would take a lot to undo it.“

Nevertheless, other experts have warned that Trump could still significantly change America’s energy trajectory during a second term. 

Energy analytics firm Wood Mackenzie has predicted that a second Trump presidency could place a huge part of renewable energy investments at risk, increase carbon emissions by 1 billion tonnes more by 2050 and delay peak fossil fuel demand by 10 years beyond current forecasts. WoodMac projects ~$7.7T in overall spending by the U.S. energy sector through 2050 under current policies, a figure that could be cut by $1T under Trump through reduced policy support for low carbon energy and infrastructure improvements. 

The analysts have predicted that less spending on low carbon energy could boost demand for natural gas by 6% or 6B cf/day by 2030.

WoodMac says that whereas Trump would lack the power to unilaterally repeal the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) enacted during the Biden presidency, he could bring changes to environmental rules and executive orders that would roll back many of Biden’s environmental policies. The research firm also projects that the total number of EVs on U.S. roads in 2050 would be 50% lower than under current policies because automakers would likely favor the production of hybrid vehicles over pure electric cars. 

There’s a lot at stake here. The auto industry has unveiled more than $100 billion in EV investments, with potential to create 100,000 American jobs.

By Alex Kimani for Oilprice.com

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