WINNEBAGO COUNTY, Ill. (WIFR) – Matthew Vincent chuckles through a telescope. Through the looking glass, he spots a goose sliding on melting ice at the Four Lakes Forest Preserve in Pecatonica.

“It’s just an amazing visual experience because everything is very fleeting,” he says of his bird watching passion. By the workday, Vincent teaches at Rock Valley College. In his pastime, he goes beyond observing birds – he counts them.

The “experience” doesn’t require a masters in math or science, he mentions. It’s an observational activity: stroll through nature, keep a count of what’s seen, and report data to the National Audubon Society (i.e., Audubon).

Counts occur each season, but in winter, Vincent searches for who of his feathered friends is brave enough to stay rather than migrate. Recently, those sessions yield “concerning” trends.

“Migration is a very dangerous thing to do,” argues the bird watcher. “But you need to get out of your breeding area because there’s not going to be enough food.”

Vincent isn’t a climate scientist. After 40 years of bird counting, however, he notices a trend with Illinois’ warmer winters.

“Our bird populations are crashing. The scientists will say it’s due to climate change and habitat loss,” he claims.

Audubon confirms Vincent’s observations in the stateline. According to the environmental nonprofit, 40 species could lose more than half of their current range if temperatures rise by 3 degrees Celsius.

Due to with warmer winters, the local bird counter worries vulnerable birds may stay in Illinois but freeze to death when a harrowing chill arrives. Species the organization lists as “highly vulnerable” include the red-headed woodpecker, field sparrow, Henslow’s sparrow, cerulean warbler and more.

Over at Hoo Haven, the wildlife rehabilitation center notices a change with owls – unable to find their usual diet of rodents if they decide against migrating.

“I, the owl, start looking for easy which would be roadkill,” describes Karen Herdklotz, director of Hoo Haven. “We get at least 20 owls from November to February that have been hit by cars.”

Herdklotz adds pelicans are another species confused by Illinois’ warmer winters. She states Hurricane Katrina disrupted their migration for nearly a decade. The birds who attempt to live on northern Illinois water are at risk of freezing to death.

Research from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign predicts specialist species could shrink up to 16% by 2099. Yet, while some birds may disappear, others stay in the stateline nearly year round.

Vincent spots eastern phoebes in stateline trees during the winter – a new observation.

“For a long time, I figured they’d be goners,” he says. “They would get cold and die. But this phoebe has lived through some pretty cold nights.”

The bird counter also sees hope with habitat restoration, like at Four Lakes. Herdklotz offers another solution “anyone” can try in their backyard.

“Plant some of the native flowers. Don’t cut down every tree – leave some up,” she suggests. Other ways to help include heated bird baths or leaving food out for feathered friends.

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