The cryptocurrency market appears to be nearing the later stages of its current bull cycle, according to data analytics provider CryptoQuant. A post by contributor Crypto Dan highlighted that the ongoing bull market, which began in January 2023, may peak by the first or second quarter of 2025. The analysis shows that 36% of Bitcoin traded during the fourth quarter of 2024 had been held for less than a month, resembling patterns observed during previous market tops. Despite this, the post suggests that significant gains in Bitcoin and altcoins remain possible before the market corrects, while also advising caution for investors as the cycle matures.

CryptoQuant’s cautious outlook contrasts with more optimistic predictions from other analysts. Steno Research forecasts 2025 as a groundbreaking year for the cryptocurrency market, with Bitcoin and Ethereum surpassing previous all-time highs. Similarly, asset manager VanEck projects Bitcoin to reach $180,000 and Ethereum to exceed $6,000 by the end of 2025. These forecasts are supported by traders on platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, who expect record-breaking valuations alongside regulatory advancements such as the approval of new crypto ETFs and the establishment of a U.S. Bitcoin reserve.

While optimism remains high, some analysts anticipate short-term challenges. Ledn’s CIO, John Glover, predicts a temporary dip in Bitcoin’s price to $89,000 before rebounding to $125,000 later in the quarter. Reduced liquidity and the Federal Reserve’s monetary policies have also been flagged as potential obstacles. Markus Thielen of 10x Research noted that upcoming decisions by the Federal Open Market Committee could slow Bitcoin’s momentum.

As of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $102,138, with key support at $97,026 and resistance at $103,096. A breakthrough above this resistance could push the price into new highs, potentially exceeding its December 2024 peak of $108,000. Technical indicators, however, suggest that the current trend lacks strong momentum, with the Average Directional Index at 18.69 indicating a weak trend that would require strengthening for further bullish activity.

CryptoQuant’s analysis emphasizes the importance of risk management, advising investors to consider gradually liquidating positions as the market approaches its cyclical peak. Despite differing views on the market’s long-term trajectory, there is a consensus that 2025 will be pivotal for cryptocurrencies, marked by significant price movements and potential regulatory milestones. While the potential for further growth remains, caution is warranted as the market matures and prepares for eventual corrections.