Those who wagered their life savings on the presidential race aren’t the only ones whose financial future hinges on today’s results: The green energy industry, in particular, has a lot riding on whether Trump prevails at the ballot box.

While investors believe a second Trump presidency could boost industrial manufacturers, fossil fuel companies, and banks, many analysts think it could herald tough times for renewables.

Less government green

Trump has pledged to rescind unspent cash from the nearly $400 billion in clean energy funding in President Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), in contrast to Kamala Harris, who is expected to continue blowing wind in the sails of the green tech boom if elected. Axing the IRA would result in a 17% drop in renewables going online between 2025 and 2035, according to a Bloomberg NEF estimate.

The stakes are highest for offshore wind projects (which Trump promised to end “on day one”) since they depend on federal permitting and subsidies.

Looking ahead: Politics wonks note that Trump might tighten eligibility guidelines for EV tax rebates and other IRA subsidies, but deep cuts could be challenging to make since much of the clean energy manufacturing investments the IRA is funding are concentrated in red states.—SK