Renewable shares of transport energy demand are rising globally, but regional trajectories differ. In the United States, Europe and China, renewable electricity makes up most new renewable transport demand, as electric vehicle stocks expand, powered by growing shares of renewable electricity. In contrast, road biofuel demand is levelling off in these regions.

In the United States and Europe, biofuel support policies persist, but rising electric vehicle use and vehicle efficiency are reducing overall transport fuel demand, thereby limiting the potential for biofuel growth. Nonetheless, new policies for the aviation and marine sectors are boosting biofuel demand in both regions. While biofuel support remains limited in China, in Brazil, India and much of the rest of the world, biofuels remain the dominant source of new renewable transport demand to 2030.

Current renewable energy demand forecasts for the road, marine and aviation subsectors fall short of the IEA Net Zero by 2050 Scenario trajectory. Among these, road transport is the closest to meeting the scenario’s targets, thanks to ongoing and planned biofuel production and the growing adoption of electric vehicles, which are powered increasingly by renewable electricity.

However, the aviation and marine segments currently depend almost entirely on fossil fuels, with renewable fuel projects only beginning to emerge. To align with the Net Zero by 2050 Scenario, biofuel consumption in these sectors must increase from 6% to 20% of global biofuel demand in 2030. Additionally, the use of hydrogen, e‑kerosene, e‑ammonia, and e‑methanol, which is currently negligible, rises to 1.5 EJ, representing about 30% of the transport sector’s renewable energy use today.