There’s increasing recognition among House Republicans that scrapping the entire suite of renewable energy tax credits codified in the Democrats’ 2022 climate law could prove to be politically unpopular — maybe even untenable.

More and more GOP lawmakers are coming forward to say they don’t want to repeal those Inflation Reduction Act credits if their party wins control of the House, Senate and White House in November — credits that are leading to thousands of new jobs and billions of dollars in spending around the country.

Some Republicans are even prepared to stand up to their party’s standard-bearer and 2024 presidential nominee, former President Donald Trump, who has called the IRA a “con job” and has promised to undo the law if given an opportunity.

“You’re seeing hundreds of millions of dollars in Republican states,” said Rep. Andrew Garbarino (R-N.Y.) in an interview last week. “If [Trump] wins Georgia, if he wins in Nevada — you look at what’s being invested in Buddy Carter’s district, in Mark Amodei’s district. You’re gonna take this away from them?”

“This is jobs,” Garbarino said. “This is good-paying jobs.”

Carter and Amodei are Republican House members from Georgia and Nevada, respectively. And they were among the 17 House Republicans who joined Garbarino in a letter in August urging House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) to preserve the credits in any tax overhaul package they might pursue next year through the budget reconciliation process, which allows lawmakers to bypass the Senate filibuster.

The letter has captured leadership’s attention: House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) and House Ways and Means Chair Jason Smith (R-Mo.) have both reached out to request meetings on the matter, said Garbarino, who co-chairs the bipartisan Climate Solutions Caucus.

Scalise and Smith declined to comment. Johnson has also not commented on the letter, but he plans to give a speech Tuesday afternoon on his “first 100 days” agenda if Republicans make gains in the November elections.

Even if they have given no indication as to whether they are sympathetic to Garbarino’s plea, Smith and Scalise’s outreach is a sign that senior Republicans are taking the mobilization in support of the IRA credits seriously.

GOP support building

There appear to be some sympathetic ears among Smith’s members on Ways and Means, the powerful panel with jurisdiction over tax issues.

Rep. Vern Buchanan (R-Fla.) didn’t sign Garbarino’s letter. But in his capacity as a leader of one of Smith’s “tax teams” developing policy recommendations for next year, Buchanan said he has already heard from industry lobbyists wanting the green credits left alone.

Buchanan said he’s noticed increased support among House Republicans for heeding those industry concerns. He said he’s “not committing to anything” at this time.

Another Ways and Means Republican, Rep. Randy Feenstra of Iowa, also declined to sign onto the Garbarino missive but said he wouldn’t endorse cutting any existing tax incentive that would hurt the agriculture industry in his district.

Ultimately, it’s becoming clear that the number of Republicans who support Garbarino’s effort extends beyond the original, 18-member pool.

One person familiar with the effort, speaking on condition of anonymity to describe private conversations, said Garbarino’s goal was initially to find 10 Republicans willing to go on the record backing the credits.

That Garbarino found an additional eight members sent an important signal to the letter’s organizers about the scope of support for the incentives.

The member of Congress could have found even more signers if he’d let more members know there was a letter to sign, said the person. Garbarino was fearful the letter would leak and cause a backlash.

The outcome, however, was that “members with billions of dollars in investments in their district hadn’t known about the letter until we flagged it,” said the person involved in helping circulate the missive.

Another person off Capitol Hill who helped Garbarino collect signatures — also granted anonymity to speak candidly — said the immediate reaction to the letter was revealing: Rather than stoking conservative ire beyond angry social media posts from Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) and House Freedom Caucus Chair Bob Good (R-Va.), it prompted lawmakers to consider joining the cause.

“There were a lot of other members who I knew who wanted to sign on but didn’t for various reasons,” Garbarino said. “We have received a lot of calls thanking us for bringing the issue up so people have the opportunity to at least discuss the tax credit that they think should stay.”

‘Discussion that needs to be had’

In a brief interview on Capitol Hill last week, Roy reiterated his alarm at the Garbarino letter and said it was “insane” for Republicans to even be entertaining the prospect of retaining some part of the Inflation Reduction Act if the GOP has the chance to repeal it.

“Driving up the cost for Americans, making us fall beyond China — there is zero reason why we should even be entertaining this,” Roy said. “We should repeal the whole thing.”

He also repeated his earlier point that every House Republican already voted in 2023 to repeal the clean energy tax credits as part of the House GOP’s opening bid to raise the debt ceiling. That was a symbolic gesture many Republicans, including then-House Speaker Kevin McCarthy of California, didn’t want to do in the first place.

Carter, who chairs the House Energy and Commerce Subcommittee on the Environment, calling the conservative reaction to the letter “overblown.” His district is home to a Hyundai electric vehicle and battery plant.

“We’re simply saying is we don’t think we should do away with it completely,” said Carter of the climate law.

Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) also framed the letter as common sense: “Any time you have a major legislation, there are pieces that are good. … You don’t always throw the baby out with the bathwater. You have to evaluate these issues. And I think there’s certain tax credits that certainly make sense and are helpful as we’re trying to combat climate change.”

Garbarino predicted his party’s handling of the tax credits in a reconciliation scenario would “come down to a case-by-case discussion,” with each incentive being assessed individually.” To that end, he said, “this letter was a start to say, ‘Let people come in and make their case.’”

There’s still no guarantee Garbarino’s contingent will prevail against a hard-right coalition that sees little value in anything Democrats have accomplished during the Biden administration. And Trump continues to rail against the IRA, though Garbarino noted the former president appears to be focusing on electric vehicle credits.

“There’s a discussion that needs to be had, and that’s what we were hoping to do with the letter — to at least provoke this discussion,” said Rep. David Joyce (R-Ohio), another signer.

“And then people will start to hear from their constituents, saying, ‘Hey, you know, we invested money based on this tax credit, and we were hoping we’d at least get it to see it paid out.’ … We hope this will generate more discussion toward a reasonable outcome for everyone.”

Reporter Kelsey Brugger contributed.