Investing in Graco (NYSE:GGG) five years ago would have delivered you a 69% gain

January 2, 2025

The main point of investing for the long term is to make money. But more than that, you probably want to see it rise more than the market average. But Graco Inc. (NYSE:GGG) has fallen short of that second goal, with a share price rise of 59% over five years, which is below the market return. Meanwhile, the last twelve months saw the share price rise 1.1%.

With that in mind, it’s worth seeing if the company’s underlying fundamentals have been the driver of long term performance, or if there are some discrepancies.

See our latest analysis for Graco

In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

Over half a decade, Graco managed to grow its earnings per share at 7.6% a year. This EPS growth is lower than the 10% average annual increase in the share price. So it’s fair to assume the market has a higher opinion of the business than it did five years ago. And that’s hardly shocking given the track record of growth.

The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-per-share-growth
NYSE:GGG Earnings Per Share Growth January 2nd 2025

This free interactive report on Graco’s earnings, revenue and cash flow is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. In the case of Graco, it has a TSR of 69% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

Graco shareholders are up 2.3% for the year (even including dividends). Unfortunately this falls short of the market return. It’s probably a good sign that the company has an even better long term track record, having provided shareholders with an annual TSR of 11% over five years. It’s quite possible the business continues to execute with prowess, even as the share price gains are slowing. Most investors take the time to check the data on insider transactions. You can click here to see if insiders have been buying or selling.

We will like Graco better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of undervalued stocks (mostly small caps) with considerable, recent, insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

 

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