Magic Software Enterprises (NASDAQ:MGIC) shareholders have endured a 34% loss from investing in the stock three years ago

January 5, 2025

Many investors define successful investing as beating the market average over the long term. But in any portfolio, there are likely to be some stocks that fall short of that benchmark. We regret to report that long term Magic Software Enterprises Ltd. (NASDAQ:MGIC) shareholders have had that experience, with the share price dropping 42% in three years, versus a market return of about 27%.

With that in mind, it’s worth seeing if the company’s underlying fundamentals have been the driver of long term performance, or if there are some discrepancies.

See our latest analysis for Magic Software Enterprises

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

Although the share price is down over three years, Magic Software Enterprises actually managed to grow EPS by 7.4% per year in that time. This is quite a puzzle, and suggests there might be something temporarily buoying the share price. Or else the company was over-hyped in the past, and so its growth has disappointed.

Since the change in EPS doesn’t seem to correlate with the change in share price, it’s worth taking a look at other metrics.

Revenue is actually up 4.0% over the three years, so the share price drop doesn’t seem to hinge on revenue, either. This analysis is just perfunctory, but it might be worth researching Magic Software Enterprises more closely, as sometimes stocks fall unfairly. This could present an opportunity.

The company’s revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
NasdaqGS:MGIC Earnings and Revenue Growth January 5th 2025

Balance sheet strength is crucial. It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on how its financial position has changed over time.

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. It’s fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. In the case of Magic Software Enterprises, it has a TSR of -34% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. And there’s no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

Magic Software Enterprises shareholders have received returns of 27% over twelve months (even including dividends), which isn’t far from the general market return. Most would be happy with a gain, and it helps that the year’s return is actually better than the average return over five years, which was 6%. It is possible that management foresight will bring growth well into the future, even if the share price slows down. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. To that end, you should be aware of the 1 warning sign we’ve spotted with Magic Software Enterprises .

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

 

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