After four years of big climate investments, clean energy subsidies and recognition of climate change from the federal government, massive change is coming as incoming President Donald Trump and his administration prepare a complete 180 on many key policies.

Trump signaled his support for fossil fuels on the campaign trail with his “Drill, baby, drill” rallying cry.

“We will get Pennsylvania energy workers fracking, drilling, pumping and producing like they have never produced before,” Trump told a cheering crowd at a rally this fall.

Trump has endorsed an “all of the above” approach to energy — a slogan that refers to the expansion of fossil fuels in addition to renewable energy sources like solar, wind and geothermal. In mid-December, Trump expanded on his approach to domestic energy production.

Trump is skeptical of new energy sources North Carolina is counting on, like offshore wind. He’s talked of favoring energy sources that the state is moving away from, like coal.

“We’ll soon unleash American energy, and this will be done at levels not seen before, issuing quick approvals for pipelines, drilling and other infrastructure,” Trump said. “We’re also going to create clean coal.”

Burning coal emits planet-warming carbon dioxide. Clean coal refers to coal plants that capture and store some of that carbon pollution before it enters the atmosphere.

But some advocates and businesses are still hopeful that North Carolina’s own targets and investments already underway will keep the state on track to meet its long-term carbon pollution reduction goals.

Skeptical administration

Trump has selected fracking company Liberty Energy’s CEO Chris Wright as his energy secretary. Wright expressed his doubts about climate change during a speech at the American Legislative Exchange Council in October:

“Climate change might not be exactly what you think it is. It’s a real thing, but it’s actually, sort of, a slow-moving — in our lifetimes — relatively modest phenomenon,” Wright said.

The United States has experienced 400 major weather and climate disasters since 1980, causing $2.8 trillion in damage. More than half that damage has been caused in the last 10 years. Wright is also skeptical of the idea that the U.S. is moving away from fossil fuels.

“There is no energy transition going on,” Wright said. “This is just this crazy term. I wish it was true, man. I’m on the board of a small modular reactor nuclear company.”

But a transition toward renewables and electrification has already begun. More people already work in solar than any other type of electric power generation, including wind energy, natural gas and nuclear. In 2022, over 9,000 people worked in North Carolina’s solar industry. Natural gas was the second largest employer among energy generators in the state, at roughly 2,800, though it provides the largest share of the state’s energy mix.

During the campaign, Trump said he would repeal the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, which provides many of the subsidies underwriting cleaner energy investments.

“We will terminate the green new scam and spend trillions and trillions of unspent dollars on roads and bridges and infrastructure,” Trump said during a September rally in Wilmington.

Clean energy subsidies

Since the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act, North Carolina has received millions in federal dollars for clean energy projects. This includes $156 million to expand residential solar. 

Maria Leonardi is a co-founder of Infinity Rack, a solar hardware manufacturer near Charlotte.

“In the solar industry, there are reasons why solar could stand on its own,” said Leonardi. “But, as a business, we do rely heavily on the fact that our customers receive tax credits from that product.”

The IRA has also helped homes and businesses use less energy. More people work in energy efficiency than any other energy-related profession, whether that’s installing new HVAC systems or upgrading lighting.

North Carolina has also been allocated $209 million in home efficiency and electrification tax rebates.

Data from Utah State University and Atlas Public Policy show that nearly 20,000 clean energy-related manufacturing jobs have been announced in North Carolina since 2016. That includes jobs in lithium mining from companies like Albemarle making huge bets on extracting the mineral in Gaston County to building EV infrastructure and battery manufacturing.

Battery and electric vehicle manufacturing make up the vast majority of those private investments, with $20.6 billion invested in the state. The bulk of this clean energy boom occurred on or after the IRA was signed into law on Aug. 16, 2022.

Toyota’s $13.9 billion battery manufacturing plant in Liberty, North Carolina, began as a $1 billion commitment in 2021, then tripled after the IRA passed.

Some folks who work in private businesses connected to the clean energy transition have expressed ambivalence over the changing of the guard.

Jeff Allen is the senior vice president at Daimler Truck in Mt. Holly, where Daimler manufactures, among other things, electric semi-trucks and school buses. He said government incentives have been helpful, but the truck manufacturer remains committed to its “emission-free” goal by 2039, no matter what.

“We believe that that path is still possible, but the infrastructure has to come along with it,” Allen said. “We do have some ventures on the charging side because we’re not seeing as much coming from the government, quite frankly.”

Blue state governors are expected to keep the push for climate goals going at the state level, but they’re not alone.Eighteen House Republicans wrote a letter to House Speaker Mike Johnson not to repeal the IRA over concerns that doing so would create uncertainty in the energy market and undermine private investments that have already broken ground in their states.