Consistency in the solar program for the last 15 years has allowed Pennsylvania to avoid what has become known as the “solar coaster.”  

“Anyone who has been in the solar industry for the last 20 years has been on the solar coaster,” said Gabe Phillips, founder and CEO of Catalyst Power, an independent energy solutions provider specializing in integrating retail electricity with complementary cleaner energy solutions for the commercial and industrial sector.  

“Lots of states announced incentives that have limited dollar figures or time frames associated with them and they get depleted. They’re meant to bridge the time frame between which things cost X today and half of X in the future. That goalpost keeps moving because of dynamics in the energy market, cost calculations, how difficult it is to get solar sighted and built, and transmission lines sighted, which also becomes potentially a federal issue,” added Phillips.  

Aside from state incentives and the obvious federal investment tax credit fluctuations the last 20 years, the other aspect of the solar coaster is tariffs from the previous Trump Administration. The tariffs were continued under the Biden Administration, then stayed, and then that stay expired.  

“That whiplash was real and is likely to continue,” Phillips said. “How bad and in what directions, I have no idea. Trying to predict is an exercise in futility.”  

Phillips’ background in energy trading and risk management has produced a track record of identifying gaps in the energy market and providing tailored renewable solutions.  

“This new administration represents an uptick in volatility in the availability in incentives for renewable energy anywhere in America, not just in central Pa.,” said Phillips. “Pennsylvania has had a modest solar incentive program. It’s not one of the stronger states in that regard, but it’s certainly an early mover in providing incentives for solar. Their value from a state incentive perspective has been modest over the recent decade or so, and the federal incentives available for clean energy in Pennsylvania have been very important for that state’s continued solar energy viability.  

“This period of potential uptick in volatility associated with federal incentives for solar could represent some risk for Pennsylvania. If you’re a business owner who’s considering adopting a clean energy measure at your place of business, you have a slightly more limited window to do that before my expected increase in volatility associated with those incentives occurs,” said Phillips.  

Solar incentive at the state level has remained consistent throughout multiple administrations, whether they were supportive or not of green energy. Phillips said he doesn’t expect that to change much, given the shift in federal incentives.  

“To make Pennsylvania’s solar projects work economically, you have to take advantage of a few of the federal incentives, which are supported by the IRA (Inflation Reduction Act),” said Phillips. “(House) Speaker Johnson has said publicly that they need to take a scalpel to the IRA, not a sledgehammer. “ 

Phillips said that while no one knows which parts of the IRA are going to be affected, the parts of it that have been valuable for Pennsylvania solar projects are the Extra Investment Tax Credit available under the IRA for an energy community, areas impacted by coal power plant closures. 

“Those geographic areas get 30% investment tax credit, solar projects there get a 40% investment tax credit, which is a major incentive to make those projects work economically,” said Phillips. “The other federal program supported by the IRA is the USDA REAP grant program for rural businesses, businesses in the agricultural industry or located in areas considered rural by the USDA definition.  

“That grant is up to 50% of the cost of the solar project, which is extremely beneficial to make projects in low power-priced, low state-incentivized environments work economically, which is a pretty easy way to describe the Pennsylvania situation,” said Phillips.  

As budgets are allocated to the current government fiscal year, which ends next September, the next 10 months represent an opportunity for Pennsylvania business owners to take advantage of that window of opportunity.   

Phillips said that in Pennsylvania, Gov. Josh Shapiro hasn’t been able to fulfill many of his clean energy goals due to opposition from a divided state government.  

“There are some measures that are still falling short of his stated goals, and I think the state legislature has caused that to take longer for him to meet his objectives as governor,” said Phillips. “They have wanted to institute a community solar construct in Pennsylvania for some time now, and that bill has failed thus far to get through the state legislature. I think that’s been a real frustration for the administration.”  

Phillips said the frustration he envisions forthcoming on the federal level by clean energy proponents would likely have been avoided had Kamala Harris won the presidential election and continued President Joe Biden’s policies.  

“What they were espousing during the campaign was a continuation of the renewable energy policies of the prior administration,” said Phillips. “Their perspective was if it’s not broken, why do we need to fix it? It was really having an extremely positive impact on renewable energy in America and bringing under the renewable energy and clean energy tent those who had previously voiced political opposition to it. It created that dynamic we see where people might be voting against their personal interests at times.” 

Phillips’ belief is that the incentive structures under the IRA would have continued under a Harris Administration and served as a solid foundation from a federal incentive structure standpoint to build upon as it has spurred a sizable amount of renewable energy development.  

“It’s been broadly successful, and weirdly enough, it’s been broadly successful in quite an array of heavily Republican states,” said Phillips. “Which is probably one of the reasons Speaker Johnson and others in their caucus are stating that they’re not going to attempt to undo and repeal the IRA at large. They need to be careful about which programs are benefiting their constituents and be careful not to cut those.” 

Other aspects of clean energy policy, including environmental policy and the Department of the Interior, are going to take a hard turn to the right, said Phillips.  

“I don’t anticipate a lot of enforcement from the EPA going forward here,” Phillips said. “What will likely turn out to be a frustration for the Trump Administration is that much of the policies decried publicly are significantly beneficial to Republican-leaning states. Elon Musk also gets a lot of benefit from those policies. There’s the policy stuff; there’s enforcement and those are going to change. 

“What’s law is going to be harder to change and much more sensitive and take longer and potentially take as long as taking us into the midterms before we see what direction they’re going to take. Monies have been fiscally allocated to this fiscal year, and they can’t do anything about that. By the time this fiscal year is up, we’re going to be staring down a year of the midterms. So, I don’t know how much boat-rocking they’re going to want to do ahead of that.”  

Phillips said for the next 10 months there’ll be some stability Pennsylvania business owners can focus on.  

“If you’re a Pennsylvania business owner or real estate owner, there will be a period of volatility that kicks up next fall and will freeze activity for a time,” said Phillips. “My hope is it will not be long. Now is an opportune moment for Pennsylvania business owners to act.”