PV will drive much of this change, the report said. In its ‘main case’ scenario, which assumes a continuation of current renewable power installation policies, the IEA expects the installed capacity of both the utility-scale and distributed PV sectors to almost quadruple between 2023 and 2030. In this scenario, the utility-scale sector will grow from 917.1GW to 3,467.1GW and the distributed sector from 694.4GW to 2,353.5GW.

The graph above compares the forecast growth in solar PV with a number of other renewable power technologies, with the expected rise in solar installations all the more notable in this context. The near quadrupling of solar compares to relatively static hydropower deployments, with 1,140.8GW of capacity in operation in 2023 and 1,576.2GW set to be in operation in 2030; and a near doubling of onshore wind capacity, from 941.3GW to 1,765.2GW by the end of the decade.

The graph also shows, however, that the world is not on track to meet the IEA’s ‘accelerated case’ scenario, which assumes that national governments will implement policies to encourage faster renewable power deployments more quickly than in the ‘main case” scenario’ This scenario will see more than 10,000GW of renewable power generation capacity in operation by 2030, compared to around 9,000GW in place in the “main case” scenario, and comes closer to the global tripling of renewable power capacity target agreed upon at the COP28 summit.

However, this tripling target would require the commissioning of around 11,000GW of renewable power capacity by 2030, demonstrating that both the IEA’s ‘main’ and ‘accelerated’ cases fall short of this target. Considering the rapid forecast growth of the solar sector in both scenarios, continued expansion of solar installations could be essential if the world is to meet the COP28 targets.

Greater deployment, greater grid challenges

Despite these looming 2030 targets, the report expects the coming years to include a number of significant milestones for the clean energy sector, including solar PV and wind generation collectively surpassing global hydropower generation this year, and renewable electricity generation overtaking coal-fired power generation next year. Indeed, by 2029, solar PV electricity generation is expected to exceed that of both wind and hydropower, to become the largest renewable power source by power generation.

However, this greater reliance on renewable power sources has and will continue to put significant strain on the world’s grid infrastructure, with many grids poorly equipped to accommodate such rapidly growing rates of new renewable capacity. Much has been made of these challenges, with the US reporting a backlog of projects awaiting grid connections with a combined capacity of 2.6TW at the end of 2023, and Europe on track to lack space for 200GW of solar capacity alone by 2030.

The IEA’s forecasts suggest that this challenge will only continue in the future, as renewable projects not only increase in installed capacity, but in their contribution to the world’s energy mix. The IEA notes that there is currently 11,650GW of renewable energy capacity in “advanced stages of development” awaiting a grid connection, 150GW more than at the same time last year.

The graph above demonstrates how, by 2030, renewable power sources will account for close to 50% of the world’s energy mix, up from around 30% today. Once again, solar is expected to see considerable growth in the coming years, with the IEA expecting the contribution of solar power to the world’s grids to leap from 5% to 16% between 2023 and 2030.

This has contributed to an increase in instances of curtailment in the global renewable energy sector, with the IEA noting that in Chile, Ireland and the UK, for instance, the curtailment of wind and solar PV reached figures between 5% and 15%.

Considerable work, both in terms of physical construction projects and new technological commitments, will be required to overcome grid and curtailment challenges. The IEA expects the world to add an additional 25 million kilometres of new grid infrastructure by 2030 and reach a cumulative installed battery storage capacity of 1,500GW by the end of the decade.

Unanswered manufacturing questions

The IEA report also draws attention to growing concerns in the global renewable energy manufacturing sector. Sustained and overwhelming investment in the solar manufacturing sector, in particular, has caused the number of solar products currently in circulation to far exceed supply, driving down prices and creating a “downturn” that Finlay Colville, head of research at PV Tech, expects to extend into 2026.

IEA figures show that global solar manufacturing capacity is expected to exceed 1,100GW by the end of this year, more than double the projected demand for PV systems, which has contributed to module prices more than halving since the beginning of 2023. This unfavourable economic situation has led to a raft of closures and cancellations in the manufacturing space—including Swiss manufacturer Meyer Burger, which scrapped a 2GW cell manufacturing plant in the US earlier this year—with the total value of these abandoned projects set a US$25 billion.

The graph below demonstrates how the world’s solar manufacturing capacity has changed between 2023 and 2024, with wafer production seeing the greatest year-on-year decline in operating manufacturing capacity.

Meanwhile, solar PV manufacturing capacity is expected to triple in both India and the US by the end of the decade, as these countries’ respective governments seek to encourage greater investment in domestic renewable technology manufacturing through the Approved List of Modules and Manufacturers (ALMM) and Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), respectively.

However, the IEA notes that in the US, producing a solar module is three times as expensive as in China—while producing a module in India is twice as expensive as in China—and this dramatic difference in price will do little to alleviate volatility in the profit margins of the global solar manufacturing sector.

The IEA itself, meanwhile, remains optimistic that the rapid growth of renewable power deployment, especially compared to the rate at which national governments can respond to changes, means that renewable power will inevitably become a cornerstone of the world’s energy mix in the coming years.

“Renewables are moving faster than national governments can set targets for,” said IEA executive director Fatih Birol. “This is mainly driven not just by efforts to lower emissions or boost energy security – it’s increasingly because renewables today offer the cheapest option to add new power plants in almost all countries around the world.”

The launch of the latest IEA study follows its publication of its ‘From Taking Stock To Taking Action’ report last month, in which the agency argued that the world’s 2030 climate targets will be within reach, provided the world makes “additional international efforts”.