Treasury yields fall as investors weigh economic outlook for 2025
January 3, 2025
U.S. Treasury yields fell on Friday as investors considered the economic outlook for the new year, amidst a quiet trading week.
At 4:50 a.m. ET, The 10-year Treasury yield was down my more than one basis point to 4.557%, while the 2-year Treasury yield was little changed at 4.2476%.
Yields and prices move in opposite directions and one basis point is equal to 0.01%.
Treasurys
Investors are weighing the economic outlook for the year ahead as data on the economic front is light due to a holiday-shortened trading week. Bond markets closed early on Tuesday and remained closed on Wednesday for New Year’s Day.
The ISM manufacturing PMI report for December is due to be published on Friday and will offer insights into the growth of the manufacturing sector. A PMI reading above 50% indicates growth while a reading below 50% means it is contracting.
On Thursday, initial jobless claims data for the week ending Dec. 28, showed a decline. It came in at 211,000, below economists expectations of 225,000, per Dow Jones. This was down from a reading of 220,000 the previous week.
Treasury yields were volatile the previous year. The 10-year Treasury started out 2024 below 3.9%, then jumped to 4.7% in the spring, then fell again to below 3.7%, and ended the year at 4.5%.
In December, the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by a quarter percentage point and indicated that there would be fewer rate cuts in 2025.
Investors will watch closely as policymakers meet again in January to make decisions on monetary policy. They’re expecting a pause in the next meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Investors are also expecting a total of two rate cuts in 2025, as indicated by the Fed.
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