California’s offshore wind industry could be a casualty if President Elect Donald Trump makes good on his promise to sign an executive order to “end” the offshore wind industry.

He cannot do it with the stroke of a pen. But Trump can deeply wound the state’s next-generation renewable energy source by cutting off funding just as it’s gaining a foothold in the U.S.

California’s offshore wind plans rely on a federal policy that offers billions of dollars in grants, subsidies and tax incentives.  

Floating offshore wind farms, which bob in the deep ocean as much as 20 miles from shore, are still not common in U.S. waters. But the technology is well on its way to being deployed in the ocean off California, which is counting on the clean energy source to meet its goals to scrub fossil fuels from the electric grid.

The state’s energy blueprint envisions massive offshore wind farms producing 25 gigawatts of electricity by 2045, powering 25 million homes and providing about 13% of the power supply.

Five offshore wind companies have already paid the U.S. Treasury $757 million to lease five tracts in the deep ocean off Humboldt County and Morro Bay.  The hundreds of turbines, each as tall as a 70-story building, would not be visible from the coast but would need infrastructure on land, including port expansions and new transmission systems.

The Biden administration calls the rush to develop this new energy frontier the “Floating Offshore Wind Shot.” But harnessing that power could end up more of a long shot if Trump pulls back federal support.

The industry, which is largely Europe-based, has kept a keen eye on Washington, D.C. politics — cheering when the bipartisan Inflation Reduction Act passed, freeing up federal money, including $100 million for transmission development and a 30% tax credit. 

In the wake of Trump’s election victory last week, stock in some offshore wind companies dropped.

Trump vowed to “terminate” the Inflation Reduction Act. But much of the tax breaks have already been claimed and the construction jobs, manufacturing and supply chain development will take place in districts that Republican lawmakers might want to protect.

Trump has long carried a grievance against offshore wind turbines, a dislike that may have begun with land-based turbines that he said spoiled the seaward view from his golf club in Scotland. He has repeated, many times over the years and at recent campaign rallies, unsubstantiated claims that wind farms cause cancer and environmental damage. 

“They destroy everything, they’re horrible, the most expensive energy there is,” Trump said at a rally in May in New Jersey. “They ruin the environment, they kill the birds, they kill the whales.”

Scientists say there is no evidence that offshore wind projects kill whales. Other offshore wind farms around the world have had minimal impact on marine mammals, although they are not directly analogous to the Pacific Ocean’s deep floating platforms. Researchers are examining the potential impacts of increased sound and ship traffic on migration patterns and effects on prey.

“More information is needed to help us better understand the potential short-term and long-term impacts of this industry on protected, threatened, and endangered species, as well as the cumulative effects of these activities on marine mammals in the context of stressors already present in the marine environment,” the federal Marine Mammal Commission says.

Floating offshore wind is at a critical inflection point. Wind developers say they need certainty from state and federal partners that environmental policies will remain in place to reassure investors. That’s no problem in California, they say, where state officials have sent strong signals of support, backed by billions in investments to build power transmission and ports. The industry got a $475 million injection for port infrastructure from just-passed ballot initiative Proposition 4.

“In the next few years much of the work that needs to be done to advance offshore wind will focus on state activities,” said Adam Stern, executive director of the industry group Offshore Wind California.

However, while the federal scaffolding to support the industry is already in place, Stern said, there’s no guarantee that support will remain.

“As an industry we want to work with the new administration to help strengthen the state’s grid reliability, continue to achieve energy independence and create new jobs,” he said. “Those issues ought to appeal to both Republicans and Democrats.”