What kind of weather lies ahead in 2025? The Met Office’s global forecast suggests it will be one of the three warmest years on record, surpassed only by 2024 and 2023. This is despite the Pacific Ocean moving into a La Niña phase, which normally brings slightly cooler conditions.

It will be confirmed officially in the coming days, but 2024 is expected to be the warmest year on record and the first when the average global temperature exceeded 1.5C (2.7F) above preindustrial levels. This comes hot on the heels of the previous warmest year on record – 2023 – which recorded an average global temperature of 1.45C above preindustrial levels.

Both 2023 and 2024 were elevated by the El Niño conditions, where warmer tropical Pacific Ocean waters revved up the heat. But there is no doubt that rising greenhouse gas emissions are the dominant driver, with previous El Niño years left in the shade compared with 2023 and 2024.

Using recent observations and a 20-year average of global temperatures, the Met Office calculates the average global temperature for 2025 will fall between 1.29C and 1.53C above preindustrial temperatures. This will make it the 12th year in succession that temperatures will be more than 1.0C above preindustrial levels, and make the goal of remaining within 1.5C seem ever more unlikely.