For the year, Bitcoin (BTC 0.21%) is only up 20%. However, Bitcoin historically performs best in the final quarter of the year.

In 3 of the past 12 years, Bitcoin has more than doubled in value in Q4. And that means Bitcoin — currently trading around the $112,000 mark — legitimately has a chance of breaking through the $200,000 price level in 2025.

Obviously, a lot has to go right for Bitcoin for this to happen. But several key catalysts are starting to appear that could send Bitcoin higher. So can Bitcoin do it again, and finish the year with a flourish?

Image source: Getty Images.

The historical evidence

Taking a big picture view of Bitcoin’s quarterly performance in the period from 2013 to 2025, the final quarter of the year is when Bitcoin typically posts its best performance. Over the past 12 years, Bitcoin has delivered an average return of 85% in Q4.

No, that’s not a typo. Bitcoin has the potential to almost double in value in a span of just three months. That could be why Tom Lee of Fundstrat is still calling for Bitcoin to hit a price of $200,000 by the end of the year. And why online prediction markets are still giving Bitcoin a 5% chance of hitting $200,000 in 2025, despite a lackluster Q3.

The historical evidence from Bitcoin is too good to ignore. In 2024, Bitcoin soared by 48% and in 2023, Bitcoin soared by 57% in the final quarter of the year. In both cases, Bitcoin went on to post triple-digit returns and become the top-performing asset in the world.

And wait, it gets even better. In 2020, Bitcoin soared by 168% in the final quarter of the year. In 2017, Bitcoin skyrocketed by 215% in Q4. And in 2013, Bitcoin went absolutely parabolic, soaring by 480%.

Of course, the standard caveat applies here: past performance is no guarantee of future performance. And that’s doubly true for a cryptocurrency such as Bitcoin, given its historic volatility. That being said, there’s certainly enough evidence in the historical record to give Bitcoin maximalists confidence heading into the final months of 2025.

Potential catalysts

The good news is that two new catalysts are starting to appear on the horizon for Bitcoin. One of these is monetary easing from the Federal Reserve. Historically, rate cuts have been good for crypto, and especially for Bitcoin. These rate cuts encourage investors to move into riskier and more volatile assets, and that definitely includes Bitcoin.

It remains to be seen, however, how long and steep the rate cuts are going to be. The Fed has a dual mandate to keep the economy growing while simultaneously keeping inflation in check. So that might limit how deep these rate cuts are really going to be.

In fact, in the week after the first Fed rate cut in September, Bitcoin actually lost value. That’s not a good sign.

Another potential catalyst is ramped up buying of Bitcoin by sovereign governments around the world. The United States, by announcing the creation of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve back in March, has now paved the way for other nations to embrace Bitcoin. The thinking is that sustained buying of Bitcoin by sovereign governments could give a major lift to its price.

In August, United States Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent hinted that new buying of Bitcoin for the strategic reserve will not occur until 2026 at the earliest. But that doesn’t prevent other nations from launching Strategic Bitcoin Reserves of their own. As of September 2025, a handful of nations have either officially announced the creation of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve or have unveiled public plans to buy and hold Bitcoin as a strategic asset.

Can Bitcoin turn in a repeat performance?

Admittedly, there’s no good reason why Bitcoin should perform so well in the final quarter of the year. In other words, this seasonality factor could simply be an artifact of the data. And it’s not like Bitcoin always performs well in the final quarter of the year. In 2014, 2018, 2019, and 2022, Bitcoin turned in double-digit losses.

That being said, the level of interest being shown in Bitcoin by sovereign nations right now is simply unprecedented. If they decide to go on a Bitcoin buying spree by the end of the year, it could be off to the races for the world’s most popular cryptocurrency once again.