Bullish Bitcoin (BTC 0.16%) price targets are nothing new for Michael Saylor, founder and executive chairman of Strategy (MSTR +4.23%), the company formerly known as MicroStrategy. He’s generally considered to be the biggest Bitcoin bull in the world, and his company is the world’s largest corporate holder of Bitcoin.

It’s one thing to be making bullish price predictions when the price of Bitcoin is soaring. But it’s another to be doing so when the price of Bitcoin is trading more than 30% below its all-time high from October.

That’s what makes his latest price predictions so stunning. He still thinks Bitcoin could rally to the $150,000 price level by the end of 2025, before hitting the $1 million price level by the end of 2029. If that’s the case, it would imply a head-spinning 1,049% gain for the world’s largest cryptocurrency.

Key assumptions for Bitcoin to hit $1 million

There are a number of key assumptions that Saylor is making in his $1 million price prediction.

Most importantly, Saylor is assuming that the pace of Bitcoin institutional adoption will continue to accelerate in coming years. The first big step came back in 2023, when Wall Street started to buy into the idea of Bitcoin as a stand-alone asset class with its own unique risk-reward characteristics. The next step was the launch of new spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2024. And then the final step came in 2025, with the rollout of the new pro-Bitcoin policies of the Trump administration.

That’s setting up nicely for Bitcoin heading into 2026. As Saylor sees it, new products from Wall Street are making it easier than ever to hedge away the volatility of Bitcoin. At the same time, banks and financial institutions are increasingly looking to create new Bitcoin-based financial products, such as new credit products collateralized by Bitcoin. That should help to create even more demand for Bitcoin over time.

Image source: Getty Images.

Another key assumption is that Bitcoin will continue to rival gold as a potential store of value. The moniker “digital gold” is already commonplace, and Bitcoin has at times acted as a safe-haven asset during times of extreme macroeconomic uncertainty. Earlier this year, the fear of higher global tariffs had traders and investors moving their money into gold and Bitcoin.

Over time, Saylor sees the market cap of Bitcoin rivaling the market cap of physical gold. The market cap of gold right now is approximately $30 trillion, while the current market cap of Bitcoin is $1.75 trillion. If Saylor is right, this implies a potential 15x to 20x upward move in the valuation of Bitcoin. That easily leads to a price of greater than $1 million for Bitcoin, based on a current price of $87,000.

What could possibly go wrong?

Given Bitcoin’s historical track record, it’s easy to buy into many of Saylor’s core assumptions. At a time when the U.S. government has created a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, and when the Trump administration has pledged to make America the “crypto capital of the world,” it’s hard not to see the pace of institutional adoption accelerating over time. In many ways, the Bitcoin genie is already out of the bottle.

Bitcoin

Today’s Change

(-0.16%) $-145.28

Current Price

$88022.00

But the real sticking point comes to all the assumptions about Bitcoin as “digital gold.” If that’s true, shouldn’t it be performing like physical gold?

This year, Bitcoin is down 8%. By way of comparison, gold is up more than 65% for the year. Simply stated, this just shouldn’t be happening.

Moreover, crypto bulls continue to make the case that the famous Bitcoin four-year cycle is now a thing of the past. That, too, rings a bit untrue.

Historically, Bitcoin has been prone to four-year cycles of boom and bust. In 2014, 2018, and 2022, the value of Bitcoin plummeted. If history is any guide, 2026 is setting up to be another bust year for Bitcoin.

However, due to the wave of buying from large institutional buyers and the arrival of the new spot Bitcoin ETFs, some are now arguing that Bitcoin is headed into an economic supercycle. But is it really possible that Bitcoin’s price only goes up from here?

When will Bitcoin hit $1 million?

The one good sign — at least, for now — is that massive Bitcoin treasury companies have not yet started selling their Bitcoin. If they do, it could be time to head for the exits. For its part, Strategy has actually been ramping up its purchase of Bitcoin heading into 2026.

While Bitcoin could eventually hit a price of $1 million by the end of 2029, the most likely scenario is that it will take much longer. I’m expecting the price of Bitcoin to move higher over the next few years, but I’m also preparing for future volatility ahead, including a possible drawdown in 2026.