10-year Treasury yield falls as investors eye jobs report

July 1, 2025

The 10-year Treasury yield

The benchmark yield slipped more than 3 basis points to 4.195%, and the 30-year yield fell more than 3 basis points to 4.738%. The 2-year yield was down more than one basis point to 3.703%.

One basis point is equal to 0.01%, and yields and prices share an inverse relationship.

U.S. markets are closed on July 4 for the Independence Day celebration, with June payroll data — a key economic indicator — now expected a day earlier on Thursday. Watchers will get a first glimpse of the health of U.S. employment through the release of ADP private payrolls on Wednesday.

Investors are also following the progress of President Donald Trump’s “big, beautiful bill,” which overcame a crucial procedural obstacle in the U.S. Senate late Saturday, bringing the sweeping spending measure a step closer to becoming law.

The motion to advance the bill to final debate passed narrowly, with the vote at 51-49, with every Democrat and two Republicans voting against it.

The voting process stretched on for hours, with the measure securing enough support only after a few initially hesitant Republicans ultimately switched to “yes” votes after withholding them.

The “big, beautiful bill” is set to be passed, said Vishnu Varathan, head of economics and strategy at Mizuho Securities. While it is projected to add $3.3 trillion in debt burden over a decade, softer Treasury yields may take some edge off, he added.

The closely watched Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for May will be released later in the day.

 

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