$100K bitcoin? Prediction markets now say odds are better
January 22, 2026
Bitcoin (BTC-USD) is once again making a run at the six-figure threshold as traders pile into spot ETFs, macroeconomic data stabilises, and prediction markets tilt decisively toward bullish forecasts.
The move higher was further fuelled after US President Donald Trump walked back threatened tariffs on European countries that might oppose his Greenland ambitions, easing geopolitical uncertainty and boosting risk appetite across markets.
Read more: Stocks climb as Trump cancels European tariffs amid ‘framework’ Greenland deal
The largest digital asset by market capitalisation edged up about 1% on Thursday, trading near $90,000. However, bitcoin (BTC-USD) is still down roughly 6% over the past week after hitting an eight-week high above $96,000 on 14 January. Despite the recent pullback, Polymarket traders assign bitcoin roughly a 10% chance of reaching the $100,000 (£74,336) milestone before the end of the month.
Read more: Crypto live prices
Analysts say the current setup for bitcoin (BTC-USD) is dependent on both macro and crypto-native catalysts. According to Nansen senior research analyst Jake Kennis, “a combination of easing inflation fears (CPI in-line), geopolitical safe-haven demand, stronger ETF inflows, and a technical breakout above $94,000–$96,000 resistance are all converging to push bitcoin toward $100,000.”
Speaking to Yahoo Finance UK, Axis co-founder Jimmy Xue noted that the move is being amplified by a “convergence of cooling US inflation and anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts, alongside the legislative progress of the CLARITY Act, which offers long-awaited regulatory certainty.”
He added that aggressive spot ETF inflows and short liquidations have helped create “a self-sustaining rally as the market anticipates the historic $100,000 psychological milestone.”
Whether bitcoin (BTC-USD) merely tags $100,000 or can sustain price discovery above it remains a key debate. Xue said the rally’s durability hinges on bitcoin “absorbing the overhead supply from 2025’s ‘top-buyers’ and overcoming the heavy sell orders clustered at the $100,000 psychological level,” while warning that the setup remains sensitive to geopolitical de-risking and the pace of institutional spot buying.
Read more: Will bitcoin price sink to $50k or soar to $125k in 2026?
Kennis argued that the run has “solid institutional and onchain backing,” but flagged that elevated leverage in futures and profit-taking from top traders near $97,000–$100,000 could inject volatility into the final stretch towards the $100,000 mark.
As bitcoin (BTC-USD) inches closer to six figures, investors are revisiting whether it now belongs alongside gold (GC=F), copper, (HG=F) and other hedging assets, that have been gaining ground in recent weeks.
Read more: Gold price to hit $5,400 this year, says Goldman Sachs
Kennis sees a narrative shift underway, saying bitcoin (BTC-USD) is “increasingly being viewed as ‘digital gold’ by institutional investors,” but stressed that its volatility makes it less of a pure defensive hedge and more of a growth asset with some hedging properties.
Xue also emphasised bitcoin’s (BTC-USD) scarcity thesis, noting that while institutions are adopting bitcoin as “digital gold,” it currently behaves more as “an asymmetric macro asset by offering significant upside potential during currency debasement rather than acting as a stable safe haven during immediate market panics.”
Shifting inflation dynamics in Japan are adding a layer of global macro complexity to the bitcoin (BTC-USD) outlook. Rising Japanese yields are triggering “a massive repatriation of capital and the unwinding of the yen carry trade,” Xue said, which typically drains liquidity and tempers appetite for high-risk assets, including bitcoin.
Read more: UK’s new tax rules could trigger crypto boom, says Aave CEO
Kennis highlighted that Japan’s 10-year bond yield hitting 2.18%, the highest since 1999, could initially tighten conditions as Japanese institutions holding roughly $1.2tn in US treasuries consider repatriation.
Yet, both analysts suggested longer-term implications could favour bitcoin (BTC-USD) if stress in sovereign bond markets forces renewed monetary intervention, with Kennis noting that such conditions could make bitcoin function “as a hedge against dollar debasement and sovereign debt concerns, similar to gold’s (GC=F) historical role during fiat credibility crises.”
Additionally, speculation over a potential replacement for Jerome Powell at the Federal Reserve adds yet another macro variable.
Kennis argued that a politically driven change at the Fed could undermine confidence in the dollar and push investors toward non-sovereign assets, such as bitcoin (BTC-USD), saying a new chair perceived as dovish could weaken the dollar and boost risk sentiment while reinforcing bitcoin’s role as a “shelter-from-the-storm” hedge.
Xue noted that leadership outcomes matter, and Fed chair candidates like Kevin Hassett could deliver an aggressive dovish stance that sparks a liquidity rally, whereas figures such as Christopher Waller or Kevin Warsh might offer a steadier, more institutional bridge between crypto and traditional finance.
Read more: Geopolitical risk shaping up new ‘Mag 7’ companies, says fund manager
Beyond near-term positioning, the more durable story may be the normalisation of bitcoin (BTC-USD) as a strategic allocation among institutions, and increasingly, sovereign entities.
Sygnum CIO Fabian Dori said that when firms such as BlackRock (BLK) and Fidelity began accumulating bitcoin (BTC-USD) within regulated fund structures, “the reputational and operational barriers that once prevented sovereign institutions from even conducting due diligence has now effectively disappeared.”
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