Environment and Climate Change Canada forecasts that 2026 will likely be among the four hottest years on record.

According to a brief analysis of global temperatures posted on ClimateData.ca last week, scientists are “virtually certain” that 2026 will be among the hottest years ever recorded.

Rising carbon emissions, driven largely by burning coal, oil and gas, are responsible for the planet’s warming. But humans are not the only reason for shattering temperature records.

“The unprecedented global temperatures over the last few years can be partly attributed to the strong El Niño event in 2023-2024, compounded by ongoing human-induced global warming,” the analysis states.  

The modelling projects this year’s global average temperature will fall within the range of 1.35 C to 1.53 C above pre-industrial levels.

There’s a 12 per cent chance of exceeding the important threshold of 1.5 C, which Canada and other countries that have signed on to the Paris Agreement have committed to avoid.

The goal of the Paris Agreement is to keep global warming below 2 C above pre-industrial temperatures while “pursuing efforts” to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 C. Its ultimate aim is for global net-zero emissions by 2050.

Limiting global warming to below 1.5 C significantly reduces the risk of heatwaves, droughts, wildfires and heavy rainfall and flooding, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The IPCC is the leading international body for the scientific assessment of climate change.

The Canadian analysis cautions that surpassing 1.5 C in a given year “does not constitute failure to meet the Paris Agreement’s goal, which is defined by the long-term average temperature over multiple decades.”

But the forecast certainly signals that the planet is moving in the wrong direction.

​This year is expected to be the 13th consecutive year where global temperatures exceed 1 C above pre-industrial levels.

​Global temperature changes are measured over the pre-industrial baseline (from 1850 to 1900), the earliest period for which reliable observations of temperature over the land and sea were taken.

Environment and Climate Change Canada is not the only ones predicting another hot year. The non-profit Berkeley Earth expects 2026 to be similar to 2025 being the fourth-warmest year since 1850. Last year was the third-warmest year behind only 2024 and 2023.