The Donald Trump administration has taken extraordinary measures to reverse the transition to renewable energy in the United States, but the decarbonization stage is already set. Wind and especially solar already far outpace natural gas for new power generation additions to the nation’s grid, and that trend is expected to continue as signs indicate the demand for renewable energy has nowhere to go but up. Here are three of them.

1. More information about greenhouse gas emissions is available at the click of a button

Federal energy policy aside, many U.S. states continue to pursue vigorous clean power portfolios. Global firms operating in the U.S. also require information about the sources of electricity flowing through the grid in order to fulfill their clean power commitments.

Responding to these demand-side forces, in 2022 the leading U.S. grid operator MISO (Midcontinent Independent System Operator) launched an online greenhouse emissions dashboard, enabling users to track the carbon intensity of the MISO grid across 15 midwestern and southern states. Last year the organization improved its projections to achieve emissions reporting almost in real time.

MISO is one of several regional operators established in the 1990s to support national grid reliability and resilience. Its territory includes Iowa and other states with a considerable stake in wind energy. Part or all of Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wisconsin also come under the MISO umbrella, along with a small foothold in Texas.

Even after President Trump took office in January, MISO continued to improve its emissions reporting, launching a new “Consumed” feature to the dashboard in March that provides a high level of detail on carbon emission at the user end.

“Increasingly stringent regulations, member goals and customer needs are driving requests for MISO to leverage its operational data to provide credible emissions data estimates,” the organization noted in a recent report on its emissions tracking activities. “Drivers for this interest include meeting and reporting emission reduction goals, creating new tariffs to support end use customer demands, increased visibility for operational decisions making, and information to aid investment decisions.”

2. They said it couldn’t be done, but it can

Another indication of the permanency of the U.S. energy transition comes from the green hydrogen industry. Green hydrogen can be produced from water in electrolysis systems that run on renewable electricity, but it is much more expensive than conventional hydrogen extracted from natural gas. Globally, the industry has struggled to find buyers. But industry analysts have identified Texas as one market where green hydrogen can compete against natural gas, partly due to co-location opportunities for combining green hydrogen with waste carbon to produce synthetic liquid fuels called e-fuels or electrofuels. The co-location strategy reduces the considerable cost of transporting hydrogen over long distances.

Energy producers are starting to catch up to this analyst consensus. This month, for example, the leading e-fuels producer Infinium started construction on the new Project Roadrunner e-fuels facility near Pecos in West Texas. Electricity to run the facility will come from a new 150-megawatt wind farm.

“The site is expected to become the world’s largest e-fuels production facility when operational, producing 23,000 tons per year (7.6 million gallons) of sustainable aviation fuel (eSAF) and other e-fuel products,” Infinium wrote in a press announcement. The company has already enlisted buyers in the aviation industry that are motivated to reduce their dependence on conventional jet fuel, including American Airlines and IAG, the parent of British Airways and Aer Lingus.

The co-location strategy is already at work outside of Texas, too. In Iowa, for example, a solar-powered electrolyzer will supply green hydrogen to produce ammonia fertilizer locally, eliminating long-distance transportation costs. Additionally, the New York startup Ecolectro has introduced a containerized, transportable electrolyzer designed for on-site use in multiple hydrogen-dependent industries including fertilizer and steelmaking as well as e-fuels

3. The call is coming from inside the house

For all of President Trump’s enthusiastic embrace of fossil fuels, his “American Energy Dominance” plan includes three major renewable resources — biomass, geothermal and hydropower — under its protective umbrella. All three represent significant opportunities to reduce the nation’s reliance on fossil energy. 

In the case of biomass, the effect of that policy protection has been almost immediate. While the Trump administration delayed or abandoned other federally supported renewable energy projects, in February the biofuels firm Montana Renewables received approval to draw $782 million from a $1.44 billion loan guarantee issued by the Department of Energy during the Joe Biden administration.

The funds will enable the firm to expand its existing facility in Great Falls, Montana, that uses biomass to produce sustainable aviation fuel. The drawdown was announced by its parent company, Calumet, which said the expanded facility will be one of the biggest in the world with a capacity of 300 million gallons of sustainable aviation fuel annually. 

The impact of Trump’s energy policy on U.S. hydropower activity will take longer to unfold. New hydropower dams are long-term, capital-intensive infrastructure projects. But federal funding for upgrades and energy-efficiency improvements will enable the hydropower industry to maintain its aging facilities and continue its status as a major contributor to the nation’s renewable energy profile. Hydropower accounts for 27 percent of renewable energy generation in the U.S., according to the Department of Energy. Hydropower can also be used for energy storage in systems that pump water into an elevated reservoir at times of excess power and release it into turbines when power demand is high. Such facilities account for the overwhelming majority of renewable energy storage capacity in the U.S. at 96 percent.

An even more significant impact will be felt in the geothermal industry, as new drilling technology expands the range of geothermal power plants into new regions of the U.S. Unlike wind and solar energy, geothermal is available at a constant, steady rate on a 24/7 basis, providing gas power plants with a new source of competition.

At the conclusion of Trump’s first term in office, the promise of saving coal jobs turned out to be an empty one. For his second term, the president has also made promises to fossil energy stakeholders that he cannot keep, as oil and natural gas join coal in the ranks of energy resources destined for marginalization as renewables become cheaper, more accessible and more efficient.