Driven by Wall Street enthusiasm and the massive arrival of institutional capital, bitcoin seems stronger than ever. Yet, behind this displayed confidence, a warning disrupts the market’s euphoria. Tom Lee, president of BitMine, reminds us that the world’s leading crypto remains vulnerable. According to him, bitcoin could still collapse by 50 %, despite its growing adoption. A warning that brutally brings investors back to the reality of an asset as promising as it is unpredictable.

Persistent Volatility Despite Growing Interest

While Bitcoin ETFs have recorded a rebound, Tom Lee, a leading figure in the sector, expressed his concerns during a recent interview with crypto entrepreneur Anthony Pompliano.

Although bitcoin’s popularity is booming, especially with the introduction of financial products like Bitcoin ETFs, Lee remains convinced that the crypto has not escaped its volatile nature. He highlighted several key points that justify his position :

• Sharp drops expected : “I am certain there will be 50% drops”, he stated, referring to the possibility that bitcoin might suffer deep corrections in the future.

• Correlation with traditional markets : Lee compared bitcoin to stock markets, explaining that “these markets frequently experience 25 % drops”. He added that a 20 % drop in the S&P 500 could lead to a 40 % loss for bitcoin.

• The impact of external factors : bitcoin’s volatility is amplified by elements like global economic fluctuations, changing regulations, and shifts in investor sentiment.

Despite the increase in institutional interest and the move toward a more structured framework, Lee emphasizes that bitcoin retains its unstable character, following a dynamic similar to traditional stock markets. This analysis highlights the difficulty of escaping volatility, even in an increasingly institutionalized market.

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A Long-Term Perspective : Stability or Sharp Correction ?

However, beyond caution, Tom Lee maintains an optimistic outlook for bitcoin’s future. Although aware of the risks of severe corrections, he holds his long-term price forecasts, ranging from $200,000 to $250,000 by the end of the year.

He considers that even a 50 % drop from those levels would not be catastrophic and could bring the bitcoin price to around $125,000, a level close to its previous all-time high.

“A 50 % correction would bring bitcoin back to its 2024 peak level”, he specified, suggesting that the crypto might go through an intense volatility phase, but with long-term recovery prospects.

The question then arises as to whether this evolution can materialize in an uncertain global economic context and with increasingly present regulation. Other analysts, like Peter Brandt, estimate that bitcoin might experience similar periods to other traditional markets that have seen 50 % drops in the past.

These correction scenarios, although potentially worrisome, would not necessarily prevent a longer-term rebound, provided that the crypto market infrastructure continues to strengthen. However, economic uncertainties and regulatory challenges could also play a decisive role in the direction bitcoin takes in the coming years.

Bitcoin remains, despite everything, a dynamic and volatile currency, whose long-term trajectory will depend on multiple factors: institutional adoption, regulatory developments, and market adaptability to economic cycles. Although Tom Lee’s forecasts seem to suggest a promising future despite possible short-term declines, the challenge lies in bitcoin’s ability to stabilize and establish itself as a reliable reserve asset, beyond the strong fluctuations that could still mark its path.