Donald Trump

These are the early headlines and other items poised to influence the market at the start of trading Tuesday. As we share this collection of market drivers, U.S. equity futures point to a modest open.

1. Global stocks dipped on Tuesday, while oil prices rose in choppy trading, as the relief rally from U.S. President Donald Trump delaying the bombing ​of Iran’s power grid fizzled out, leaving investors with no clarity over the fate of the Middle East war. U.S. Treasury yields ‌pushed higher and the dollar regained lost ground, in a retracement of the rally that swept markets overnight after Trump added five days to his Saturday ultimatum for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours… (Reuters)

Yesterday we traded the word “duration” for “follow through” for what we’re looking to see after President Trump’s comments that sent the market roaring higher. Fresh reports out this morning pointing to continued fighting between Iran and U.S.-Israel are going to raise another round of questions about Trump’s “productive conversations” claim, beyond Iran denying them. We suspect a portion of yesterday’s trading volume was driven by short-covering as the market initially reacted to Trump’s comments.

Our thinking is that where oil prices settle in the coming weeks and when the Strait of Hormuz opens will inform us about inflation pressures, incremental earnings risk, and whether a Fed rate cut for this year comes back onto the table.

2. A key feature of the March data was a marked acceleration in the rate of input cost inflation. Input prices increased at the fastest pace since February 2023. Steeper inflation was registered across both manufacturing and services, although the acceleration was more pronounced in manufacturing. Rates of increase quickened in Germany, France and in the rest of the euro area. With input costs rising sharply, eurozone companies also increased their selling prices at a faster pace in March… (S&P Global)

That March Flash PMI data out earlier this morning was a prelude to the U.S. March Flash PMI that will be published at 9:45 AM ET. The market consensus calls for a modest softening in headline Flash Manufacturing PMI and the same for Services, but given the climb in oil, diesel, gas, and the flow through to consumers and companies, we’ll be interested in how that is captured in the March data. 

Per data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the spot price for WTI crude averaged $85.86 per barrel during the first half of March 2026 compared to $62.21 for January-February 2026 and $67.28 for the first half of March 2025.

3. Chip designer Broadcom says it is seeing supply chain constraints across the technology sector, including ​capacity limits at its manufacturing partner TSMC, as soaring demand for AI chips ‌strains production. “We are seeing that TSMC is hitting (production capacity) limits,” Natarajan Ramachandran, director of product marketing in Broadcom’s Physical Layer Products division, told reporters on Tuesday… “They will be increasing the capacity to 2027, ​but that has become a bottleneck… (Reuters)

We see this as a very supportive comment for the Portfolio’s decision to start a new position in Applied Materials  (AMAT)  yesterday. If Broadcom  (AVGO)  is seeing this, then odds are other Taiwan Semi  (TSM)  customers are as well, and that raises the prospects for TSM to lift its capital spending plans when it releases its Q1 2026 earnings. 

When TSM reported its Q4 2025 results, it shared expectations for its 2026 revenue to rise 30% and its revenue compound annual growth rate over the 2024-2026 period to be ~25%. Ahead of that earnings report, we’ll continue to track TSM’s monthly revenue reports as prelude to capex comments.

4. Estée Lauder and Puig confirmed the discussions, following a report by The Wall Street Journal. The talks are continuing, and there is no guarantee an agreement will be reached, the companies said. A deal would further expand Estée Lauder’s sprawling portfolio, which includes Clinique, M.A.C, Bobbi Brown Cosmetics and Le Labo. It would also help cement the family-controlled business as a leader in the so-called prestige beauty category. Puig, which is also still family-controlled, sells perfume, fashion, makeup and skin-care products, from brands including Carolina Herrera, Charlotte Tilbury, Byredo and Dr. Barbara Sturm. (WSJ)

Another signal that M&A activity continues to hum, and Estee Lauder  (EL)  is no stranger to using it to expand its portfolio of luxury brands. One of the questions to puzzle through is how two companies whose respective stocks have been under considerable pressure will come together and contend with the stagnant market demand for fragrances and consumer spending concerns?

5. Oracle is revamping its cloud-based financial software used by large companies to work with artificial intelligence agents, with a goal of having humans ​ask the system business questions and letting AI figure out how to ‌find the data. The changes, which Oracle planned to announce at an event in London on Tuesday local time, are part of a broader trend in which providers of highly specialized corporate software are revamping ​it to be used by AI agents that can carry out tasks on ​behalf of human users. (Reuters)

The event Oracle  (ORCL)  is hosting in London today is billed as “Welcome to Oracle AI World Tour London.” With speakers that range from Zoom  (ZM)  to the U.K.’s National Health Service (NHS), it’s poised to be a showcase for how Oracle is helping those organizations drive productivity and similar benefits. Pretty much a mirror to what we see when Palantir  (PLTR)  hosts its DevCon events. We’ll be focusing on how Oracle is leveraging AI models to deliver improved tools, as well as customer comments not just about AI adoption, but expanding use cases.

6. Themed ‘Retail in the Age of AI’, Shoptalk Spring 2026 will feature over 180 speakers, including senior executives from Victoria’s Secret, OpenAI, Wayfair, Reddit, New Balance, Dutch Bros, Meta, Simon Property Group, e.l.f. Beauty, Gap. and Walmart. (RTIH)

This conference kicks off today and runs through Thursday, and while we shouldn’t expect any formal comments about the current quarter, what is said by these non-tech companies about how they aim to leverage AI in their respective businesses will be of keen interest to us. What we’ll be listening for is how they intend to use AI internally for supply chain and back-office operations as well as use it to improve the consumer experience and grow the average transaction size.

7. Economic data today per TipRanks: Productivity & Unit Labor Cost (Q4 2025, revised), S&P Flash PMI (March).

8. Companies reporting today per TipRanks: AM – Smithfield Foods (SFD). PM – GameStop ( (GME) ), KB Home ( (KBH) ).

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At the time of publication, TheStreet Pro Portfolio was long AMAT, AVGO and PLTR.