Social Media as a Black Box

The double-whammy of lower user engagement and advertiser pullbacks is likely to be devastating, just as it’s been at X. Making matters worse is the fact that social networks have gradually restricted organic brand reach to near zero over the years.

What little organic traffic that exists is often obscured by these platforms, according to SparkToro. And cookie consent is further complicating attribution, suppressing conversion tracking by up to 20%, according to Orbit Media. All of that has further discouraged brands from investing much in an organic presence on social media platforms.

As a result, when brands pull back from social media advertising, they’re often left with a minimal direct presence. That said, some may have an indirect presence via influencers, but even that is on shaky ground.

Influencer Fatigue

Plenty of consumers feel a kinship with their favorite influencers. That’s particularly true of younger consumers in Gen Z.

However, in general, trust is slipping. A common consumer belief today is that most influencers only endorse and promote products because they’re paid to, not because they use or even like the product. 

According to a survey by EnTribe, 81% of consumers said a brand’s use of influencers has either no impact or a negative impact on their perception of that brand. Fifty-one percent said they scroll right past influencer posts, in much the same way that consumers ignore ads. When asked if their purchases were ever impacted by an influencer, 62% said they’ve never purchased an influencer-promoted product, while 42% of those who had purchased an influencer-promoted product said they regretted doing so.

The most shocking evidence that the influencer market has peaked is that 86% said they’re more likely to trust a brand that publishes user-generated content, compared to just 12% who said they’re inclined to purchase a product promoted by an influencer.

Bots Are Taking Over — and Everyone Knows It

Authenticity and trust are being further undermined by AI bots, which in some cases are being directly created and enabled by social media platforms. For instance, Meta created Facebook and Instagram AI bots for living celebrities, dead famous people and others. Meta also allows Instagram users to create AI versions of themselves to interact with their followers (seemingly to save them from having to waste their time doing so). 

These programs aren’t fringe. They’re core to social media’s future. Meta has even told The Financial Times that it envisages social media filled with AI-generated users.

To their credit, these AI bots are clearly labeled. But it conjures up a dystopian future where we all create AI versions of ourselves that chat with one another and periodically update us about the fake conversations our fake selves are having with all the other fake people. That’s a far cry from the original promise of social media. In fact, we probably won’t call it “social” media at that point.

Of course, all of that is on top of the enduring problem of run-of-the-mill fake accounts. Facebook alone removes around 1 billion fake accounts each quarter.

Take Back What You Can Control

If you throw in the uncertainty swirling around TikTok, social media has never looked more shaky. Still huge, but shaky.

The natural response from brands should be to counterbalance that uncertainty by investing more in channels they have much more control over, including websites, apps, customer loyalty programs, email, SMS (RCS), mobile and browser push, and podcasts.

In addition to building up first-party audiences, which give you much more direct and unmediated relationships with your customers and prospects, investing in these channels also gives you many opportunities to collect first-party data. This data is vital for driving message targeting, ad targeting and analytics that get us closer to our customers.

The internet is undergoing massive changes. And if Twitter’s transformation into X demonstrates anything, it’s that big changes can happen faster than you think. Every brand should be watching carefully and coming up with contingency plans before they realize they’re a few years too late.

Core Questions About the Decline of Big Social Media

Editor’s note: Key questions surrounding the decline of major social media platforms and how brands should adapt their customer engagement strategies.

How is the collapse of big social media changing customer engagement?

As trust in major social media platforms declines, brands are shifting their focus toward direct engagement strategies such as email marketing, owned communities and first-party data collection. Consumers are looking for more meaningful interactions, prompting businesses to invest in personalized customer experiences outside of traditional social media channels.

What role does user-generated content (UGC) play in brand credibility?

With consumers increasingly skeptical of paid influencer promotions, authentic user-generated content has become a powerful trust-building tool. Brands that encourage customers to share real experiences—through testimonials, reviews, and organic social posts—see stronger engagement and credibility compared to those relying on traditional advertising.

Why should brands invest in owned channels over social media?

Brands that rely heavily on platforms like X and Meta face risks due to algorithm changes, declining organic reach and shifting audience behaviors. Investing in owned channels such as company websites, email newsletters and brand communities provides greater control over customer relationships and reduces dependence on unpredictable third-party platforms.

How can brands mitigate the risks of AI-generated content and fake engagement?

AI-generated interactions and fake engagement on social media are eroding trust. To counter this, brands are prioritizing authenticity by fostering real customer conversations, leveraging human-led content creation, and verifying the credibility of online interactions. Transparency about AI usage in customer engagement is also key to maintaining consumer trust.

What are the long-term implications of social media’s decline for digital marketing?

The decline of traditional social media is pushing marketers toward more diversified digital strategies. SEO-driven content, community-based marketing and personalized experiences are becoming more effective than broad social media outreach. Businesses that focus on building loyal audiences through multiple touchpoints will be better positioned for long-term success.

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