‘Keep your head’: Why Warren Buffett suggests reading a 19th century poem when stocks are falling

March 11, 2025

Stock prices have fallen sharply this week as investors brace for the possibility of an economic slowdown — the potential impact of temperamental tariff policies and a deceleration in the labor market.

In a Sunday interview on Fox News, President Donald Trump hinted at the potential for some near-term struggles. “There is a period of transition, because what we’re doing is very big,” he said. “We’re bringing wealth back to America. That’s a big thing. … It takes a little time, but I think it should be great for us.”

When asked if a recession is imminent, the President added, “I hate to predict things like that.” He went on to say, “Look, we’re going to have disruption, but we’re OK with that.”

The S&P 500 is down by more than 9% from its record high on Feb. 19, putting stocks on the doorstep of a correction, defined as a decline of 10% or more from previous highs.

Should it become more apparent that a recession is forthcoming, investors are likely to push things down even further. Just ask Berkshire Hathaway chairman and investing legend Warren Buffett.

“There is simply no telling how far stocks can fall in a short period,” he wrote in his 2017 letter to shareholders. But should a major decline occur, he continued, “heed these lines” from Rudyard Kipling’s classic poem “If,” circa 1895.

“If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs … If you can wait and not be tired by waiting … If you can think — and not make thoughts your aim … If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you … Yours is the Earth and everything that’s in it.”

It’s worth noting that Buffett was writing about major declines in the stock market, periods like the 2007 to 2009 bear market during which the S&P 500 lost more than 50% of its value.

Those are quite a bit rarer than what investors are going through now. In fact, corrections in the stock market are pretty standard fare. There have been 21 declines of 10% or more in the S&P 500 since 1980, with an average intra-year drawdown of 14%, according to Baird Private Wealth Management.

Of course, investors often don’t know if things are going to go from bad to worse until they do.

“No one can tell you when these will happen,” Buffett wrote in 2017. “The light can at any time go from green to red without pausing at yellow.”

The light can at any time go from green to red without pausing at yellow.

Warren Buffett

But whether a decline is modest and short-lived or seemingly long and painful, the message to individual investors is the same: Stick to your long-term plans and continue investing.

Buffett writes that he views downturns as “extraordinary opportunities.” Why? Because, historically, it’s never been all that long before the market resumes its upward trajectory.

Since 1928, the average bear market — defined by a decline of 20% or more from recent highs — has lasted less than 10 months, according to data from Hartford Funds. In the scope of the several decades you likely plan on investing, that’s practically no time at all.

And even if living through it can be scary, keep your eyes on the prize: your long-term goals. By continuing to consistently invest as the market declines, you effectively buy stocks when they’re selling at a discount. As long as you take a well-diversified approach to investing, you’ll get a better and better deal the further stock prices fall.

As Kipling says, keep your head, ignore breathless headlines and keep doing your thing. Will the Earth and everything in it be yours? Maybe not — but you’ll likely do a good job of boosting your long-term wealth.

The whole attitude recalls another quote of Buffett’s, about taking advantage of bargain-priced investments, this time from his 2009 shareholder letter: “Big opportunities come infrequently. When it’s raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble.”

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