Most people living without electricity are in Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, where power generation is about one-tenth of what it is in other developing regions. Other areas without power include parts of Latin America and the Philippines. Despite noble efforts and current population trends, 1.2 billion people —or 15% of the world’s population—will still remain without electric power by 2030.

Poor countries spend a significant amount of money repaying their debts, which results in less investment in essentials such as infrastructure, healthcare, and climate change. They have relied, in part, on the goodwill of this country. We’ve all read that the United States has dismantled USAID, which was established in 2013 and aimed to create 60 million new electricity connections and 30,000 MW of new power generation.

Banking On the Trends

International organizations like the African Development Bank and Mission 300 also work on these issues. They’re teaming up with the World Bank to make a big difference. Their goal is to provide electricity to 300 million people by 2030, a huge step forward.

The World Bank and African Development Bank are investing billions in electrification projects, but it’s insufficient. Private investment could make up the difference: Consider public-private partnerships where governments offer loans to entice companies. Rwanda is an example of this trend, increasing its electrification rate from 22% in 2010 to over 70% today.

“We need to rethink how capital is deployed. During the IRENA symposium, “If we view capital as we do everything else, it will only delay projects,” says Thomas Alweendo, the Minister of Mines and Energy for Namibia. “We must reassess our perspective on investments and consider the associated risks. Are they viewed as higher risk? How risky are they? I suggest that renewable energy is a tool to manage climate change.”

Namibia’s energy story is brimming with potential. It’s focusing on green hydrogen by leveraging its solar and wind resources. Germany has pledged $10.8 billion to establish Namibia as a hydrogen export hub for Europe, and initiatives like Hyphen Hydrogen plan to produce 300,000 tons annually by 2030. Once this project comes to fruition, the subsequent jobs and revenues will follow.

Africa could be a hotspot for renewables. The share of renewable energy in Africa’s electricity consumption varies from country to country. As of 2023, renewable sources, primarily hydroelectric power, account for approximately 22% of Africa’s electricity generation. For example, Nigeria is at 22% but plans to hit 50% using localized microgrids—a project backed by the World Bank and the African Development Bank.

In 2022, the International Energy Agency estimated it would take $22 billion annually to significantly expand mini-grids in Africa and $50 billion to develop the centralized national networks. The African Development Bank said it required much more.To attract that money, nations must de-risk the projects and give investors more confidence in their markets.

The Path Forward?

To be sure, South Africa still depends heavily on coal for roughly 80% of its power. However, coal use is falling due to climate concerns and the difficulty financing new projects. Meanwhile, several nations rely on natural gas, including Nigeria, the continent’s largest producer. Egypt, Algeria, and Gabon are also natural gas producers. Natural gas emits significantly fewer emissions than coal when used for power generation.

What is Africa’s quickest path to universal electricity access: renewables or fossil fuels? Solar mini-grids and solar home systems can be set up in a few weeksormonths, whereas it can take years to build fossil-fuel power plants or expand the national grid.

Indeed, solar costs have plummeted over the last decade—as low as 2-6 cents per kilowatt hour. IRENA says such distributed systems are 30% to 50% cheaper than diesel generators. Even if natural gas is abundant—like in Nigeria—nations must still process and transport it, which takes money.

“We have significant renewable energy resources and are sitting on the critical minerals needed to make this transition,” says Kandeh Yumkellah, Chairman, Presidential Initiative on Climate Change, Renewable Energy and Food Security for Sierra Leone at IRENA’s assembly. “We have presented some of these projects and investors are telling us they need guarantees. The energy business is a business—not a charity. Projects must be commercially viable everywhere.”

“It is essential to think outside the box. You cannot discuss tripling renewable energy without addressing the grid,” adds Agbeve Mahu, director of renewable energy at the Ministry of Energy of Ghana. “We need to modernize the grid. We must establish a common point—a comprehensive continental grid to optimize resource distribution.”

Universal electrification is an elusive goal, but is it attainable? Green energy is part of the solution—a fuel that allows emerging nations to bypass expensive investments in centralized infrastructure. Instead, they can start small and grow. Think mini-grids or solar rooftop projects. However, these countries must tempt risk-takers, requiring marketable deals and solid assurances.