Tropical Forests Are Struggling To Keep Up With Climate Change

March 18, 2025

The Andean forest, located in the Andes Mountains in South America, where scientists study ecosystem function, forest diversity, composition and responses to global change.(William Farfan-Rios)

Often referred to as the “lungs of the Earth,” tropical forests play a critical role in regulating our global climate. But as our planet warms, these crucial tropical forests aren’t adapting quickly enough to keep pace with climate change.

Scientists from Wake Forest University and the University of Oxford’s Environmental Change Institute have published a groundbreaking study in the journal Science that highlights the vulnerability these forests are facing.

The health of our tropical forests is directly linked to the health of our planet. While they cover less than 6% of the Earth’s land surface, they contain more than half of the world’s animal species. These forests absorb vast amounts of carbon dioxide, acting as a natural buffer against climate change.

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A closer view of the Andean forest, located in the Andes Mountains in South America, where scientists study ecosystem function, forest diversity, composition and responses to global change.(William Farfan-Rios)

Scientists believe that by 2100, temperatures in the region could rise by up to 7.2 degrees Fahrenheit, with rainfall decreasing by as much as 20%. This could push tropical forests further out of balance, increasing their vulnerability to extreme climate events.

The study focused on trees in both mountainous and lowland regions, revealing that the trees in the mountainous regions adapted better to climate change, most likely due to the bigger climate swings at higher elevations.

This image shows tree species tagged in a 2.5-acre plot in the Amazon.(William Farfan-Rios)

In lowland forests, changes in plant traits, such as leaf thickness and drought resistance, indicate some adaptation. However, these shifts are happening at less than 8% of the speed required to keep up with climate change.

This lag increases vulnerability, making forests more susceptible to extreme weather, drought and biodiversity loss.

“The superpower of tropical forests is that for the past 60 million years, trees could rely on animals to pollinate them and move their seeds,” said Miles Silman, co-author of the study. “We are rapidly removing the animals that disperse the plants and make all the other ecological interactions happen. The loss of fauna and the loss of large tracts of habitat are kryptonite for tropical forests.”

The Andes Mountains are one location where scientists are studying tropical forests and their adaptability to climate change.(William Farfan-Rios)

If tropical forests fail to adapt quickly enough, their ability to store carbon and regulate climate will weaken. This could lead to increased carbon emissions, accelerating climate change.

Also, species unable to cope with the changing climate may decline or disappear, leading to a loss of biodiversity that could have cascading effects on ecosystems.

“If we know what species of trees are doing better or worse, and what set of traits they have, then we know what they can withstand,” lead author Jesús Aguirre-Gutiérrez explained. “It will help inform what conservation actions should be encouraged and where funding should be allocated.”

To protect these vital forests, conservation efforts must focus on reducing deforestation, promoting biodiversity and restoring degraded areas. While trees may not be able to move fast enough on their own, strategic human intervention, such as assisted migration and reforestation, could provide the lifeline these forests need.

Jennifer Gray is a weather and climate writer for weather.com. She has been covering some of the world’s biggest weather and climate stories for the last two decades.