Bitcoin’s BTC/USD near-term trajectory and dynamic regarding Ethereum ETH/USD will depend on technical indicators and the outcome of Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee decision, according to prominent analyst Benjamin Cowen.

What Happened: In a podcast published on Tuesday, Cowen identified Bitcoin’s weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) support level having hit the 44 level for the third time in this cycle, after previous touches in September 2023 and September 2024.

If BTC holds this level, it would align with the 2016-2017 bull cycle.

A break below 44 RSI, however, could mean the market resembles 2019-2020’s choppier period instead.

Cowen noted that while 2016-2017 had risk-on periods in February, this cycle has remained risk-off through January, February and March, raising concerns about market strength.

Also Read: The Bitcoin FOMC Preview: A Dovish Powell Pivot Could Send BTC To $90,000

What’s Next: In another podcast, Cowen examined the impact of Federal Reserve policy on crypto markets, particularly Ethereum.

He commented on the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy decision, suggesting the continuation of quantitative tightening has significantly impacted market dynamics, particularly for altcoins.

The last time ETH was at ~$1,800 (2022), Bitcoin traded around $20,000-$25,000.

Now, Bitcoin is nearly 4x higher, but ETH has remained at the same price, indicating altcoins are lagging BTC significantly.

Looking ahead to the FOMC meeting, Cowen noted that if quantitative tightening ends, historical patterns suggest ETH/BTC would bounce, similar to previous cycles.

Inflation concerns could delay a Fed pivot, making a rapid recovery uncertain.

“They might not be as willing to support markets in the same way as quickly until it’s more apparent that inflation is actually coming back down to earth,” Cowen said.

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