Investors in McDonald’s (NYSE:MCD) have seen decent returns of 83% over the past five year

April 6, 2025

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The main point of investing for the long term is to make money. Better yet, you’d like to see the share price move up more than the market average. But McDonald’s Corporation (NYSE:MCD) has fallen short of that second goal, with a share price rise of 63% over five years, which is below the market return. Over the last twelve months the stock price has risen a very respectable 13%.

So let’s assess the underlying fundamentals over the last 5 years and see if they’ve moved in lock-step with shareholder returns.

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To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it’s a weighing machine. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

Over half a decade, McDonald’s managed to grow its earnings per share at 7.7% a year. This EPS growth is slower than the share price growth of 10% per year, over the same period. So it’s fair to assume the market has a higher opinion of the business than it did five years ago. That’s not necessarily surprising considering the five-year track record of earnings growth.

You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

earnings-per-share-growth
NYSE:MCD Earnings Per Share Growth April 6th 2025

Dive deeper into McDonald’s’ key metrics by checking this interactive graph of McDonald’s’s earnings, revenue and cash flow .

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. As it happens, McDonald’s’ TSR for the last 5 years was 83%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

It’s good to see that McDonald’s has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 15% in the last twelve months. That’s including the dividend. That’s better than the annualised return of 13% over half a decade, implying that the company is doing better recently. Given the share price momentum remains strong, it might be worth taking a closer look at the stock, lest you miss an opportunity. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. For example, we’ve discovered 2 warning signs for McDonald’s that you should be aware of before investing here.

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Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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