Maersk, the largest publicly-traded container carrier and logistics company, cited the “increasingly volatile environment,” telling investors that it expects volume growth in the global container market will slow and possibly even be negative in 2025. The carrier reported, however, a strong start for the first quarter of 2025, which it expects to carry into the second quarter as customers build inventories before the full effect of the tariff war overtakes the market.

“With trade tensions flaring up and uncertainty on the rise, global supply chains are once again in the spotlight,” said CEO Vincent Clerc. He believes Maersk is well-positioned because of its integrated shipping and logistics offering, which could help customers make the best business decisions in the face of current uncertainties.

First quarter container volumes the company reported were stable versus a year ago, while it benefited from higher freight rates in Q1 2025. Profits for its ocean segment soared to $1.9 billion this quarter versus just under $1 billion a year ago. Costs have stabilized after last year when diversions around South Africa began due to the security issues in the Red Sea. Maersk said today it expects the disruption in the Red Sea will continue through the rest of the year.

Despite the looming tariffs and volatility, Maersk said it expects market growth in the second quarter. While admitting that volumes on routes from China to the U.S. plunged 30 to 40 percent in April, Maersk said it believes customers are building inventories, which supported the second quarter, while pointing to uncertainty and the risk of contractions in the second half of the year if the tariffs are not rolled back.

Maersk’s remarks came as Donald Trump heralded the U.S.’s first trade deal, which came from long-time ally the United Kingdom. Trump, however, told reporters that he recognized the tariffs on China would be lowered while still predicting a trade deal would be reached.

Due to the unpredictability, Maersk, however, revised its outlook for the global container market saying growth would be lower than the previous four percent prediction. Its revised estimate set the low end of the range at a one percent contraction, “given the increased macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty.”

Maersk said the sequential declines it reported today were expected while it called Q1 “solid results.” Clerc told investors the company would be “doubling down on the work underway on automation and cost management to remain fit for what lies ahead.”

Despite the increased uncertainty leading to a more cautious container volume growth outlook, Maersk reconfirmed its full-year guidance provided in February. It is still projecting earnings (EBITDA) of $6 to $9 billion but said its free cashflow would be negative by at least $3 billion. 

Near-term, Maersk said it was able to reallocate some capacity to other markets, which it said still had strong demand. Clerc said so far the trade war has mostly impacted the flow between China and the U.S. telling CNBC it has “not yet contaminated any of the other trade lanes.”

Clerc told Reuters that they were confident the supply chain would stabilize. He said “the dream of producing locally” for all the needs is not possible. While the trade war casts a shadow over the U.S. economy, he called the current tariffs prohibitive, predicting volatility ahead before the market stabilize.