Why bitcoin and gold are rallying as bond yields hit 30-year highs
June 19, 2025
As US, Japanese, and European sovereign bond yields surge to multi-decade highs, investors are increasingly turning to safe havens such as gold (GC=F) and bitcoin (BTC-USD) to preserve capital and hedge against the growing risk of stagflation
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In an exclusive conversation on Yahoo Finance Future Focus, Hidden Road director of liquidity management Gary Murphy unpacked why faith in fixed income is wavering and where the smart money is flowing instead.
Bond yields in US Treasuries are soaring to levels not seen in over three decades, reflecting a shift in global financial markets.
“We have seen yields rising in recent months, and the curve has been steepening across the board. I think the recent downgrade by Moody’s of the US debt is an acknowledgement that, the fiscal outlook in the US and globally, is deteriorating and this, coupled with, the tariffs that have been imposed, the worries about inflation stoking up again, has central banks bracing for, a potential stagflation scenario,” Murphy told Yahoo Finance UK.
He pointed to an array of catalysts — newly imposed tariffs, rekindled inflation fears, and central banks bracing for the possibility of stagflation.
“All of this, coupled with the recent volatility across all traditional asset classes has driven investors to look to look elsewhere, because of that, assets like gold and bitcoin in particular have begun to catch on recently,” he added.
While gold has long been the go-to inflation hedge, bitcoin’s (BTC-USD) surge to fresh all-time highs reflects its growing acceptance as “digital gold.”
Historically, the crypto market was dominated by niche funds and unregulated exchanges. However, today, a broad range of institutions, from pension funds to Wall Street market makers, are embracing digital assets.
So what’s driving this shift in the current macroeconomic environment?
Read more: Why UK can leapfrog EU and US on crypto, according to Coinbase exec
“The participants entering the space in the past two to three years are vastly different from those of a decade ago,” Murphy said. “You’re seeing tier-one market-structure names make meaningful investments.”
He highlighted stablecoins as a case in point — in 2024, more than $27tn of stablecoin volume flowed on-chain, surpassing even Visa (V) and Mastercard’s (MA) combined volumes.
“I think for a long time, the kind of narrative was that institutions are coming into the digital space, but particularly this year, 2025, the institutions are here,” Murphy said.
Pivoting to technology’s potential to reshape macroeconomics, the discussion turned to whether AI-driven productivity gains could help tame inflation or simply fuel fresh volatility.
Murphy said: “I think it has to be taken seriously. And I think you’ve already seen some meaningful productivity gains in recent years, with the AI boom, I think you know, anywhere where human labour is a material cost or automation can make a difference, this will lead to greater economics overall, for companies in general.”
Read more: 6 crypto developments in 2025 that will keep fuelling bitcoin’s rally
However, he cautioned: “I’m wary to say inflation as a whole will be solved, because I think there are sort of more structural issues that need to be addressed. But it’s definitely something that policymakers and governments alike are hoping that there will be a productivity boom driven by AI, which can help relieve some of the debt burden and ultimately bring down rates in the long term.”
Murphy then described how different people of different ages are recalibrating their portfolios in this era of high yields and market uncertainty.
“There is a fundamental shift for the younger generation, particularly millennials and Gen Z,” Murphy said. “Investing is much more accessible for them, they’re much more accustomed to doing things on their phone. It’s much easier to access these types of investments.
“As a younger generation are going to be naturally more comfortable taking risks, so they’ll move a bit further up the risk curve when they’re allocating as they mature, and continue their investment journey.”
Murphy then discussed recent developments at Hidden Road. “Our first product was FX prime brokerage at Hidden Road, and this was followed by digital asset prime brokerage futures clearing, where futures clear on the CME, OTC swaps clearing, and also fixed income repo,” he said.
“We’ve seen strong growth across those product lines, and we’re excited about our Route28 synthetic swap offering, where you can trade digital swaps with equities and FX.”
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