A popular crypto analyst says that Bitcoin’s (BTC) current bull market cycle may reach an end if one key event occurs.

In a new YouTube video, Benjamin Cowen tells his 904,000 subscribers that a Bitcoin price dip below the 50-week simple moving average (SMA) on the weekly timeframe may mark the end of the bull cycle based on historic precedent.

“So long as the 50-week SMA holds, the structure of the mark remains intact. A weekly close below that would call things into question…

In this case, we have an indicator that should tell us that the cycle is over whenever we get these weekly closes below the 50-week moving average. It hasn’t happened yet. Now, where is the 50-week SMA? Right now, it’s at around $86,000. It’s between $85,000 and $86,000.”

Cowen also says that Bitcoin may test the 50-week SMA in the third quarter of 2025 but hold it as support, indicating the bull cycle may continue.

“The argument in this case is that as long as we’re above that [50-week SMA], then the structure of the market, the integrity of the cycle, is intact. And is there a chance we test it again in Q3? Absolutely. We tested it last Q3. We tested it almost basically the third quarter before that.”

Bitcoin is trading for $108,218 at time of writing, flat on the day.

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