Why Investing In U.S. Stocks Remains The Best Idea

July 9, 2025

The U.S. stock market has for many, many decades been the place to be, but sometimes others supplant it in terms of growth spurts. This year through Tuesday, the MSCI All-Country World Index (excluding American stocks) has shot ahead 16%, with emerging markets only about one percentage point behind it.

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has lagged, tallying just under 6% in 2025. A lot of the benchmark U.S. index’s relatively tepid performance relates to uncertainty about the effect of Trump administration’s tariffs on corporate earnings and consumer spending.

Long-term, however, the S&P 500 has skunked the world index, and shows very sign of continuing to do so. The ACWI-ex U.S. has doubled over the past 10 years. Meanwhile, the S&P has tripled. With the usual caveat that the past does not foretell the future in the market, odds are that U.S. equities will remain the place to put much of one’s investing chips.

That’s the thinking from Joseph Quinlan, head of CIO market strategy for Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank. Sure, Quinlan writes in a recent research report, overseas markets deserve a decent allocation. The best opportunities overall reside with the globe’s largest economy, though. As he declares, “we remain adamant that investors do not succumb to the budding narrative that America’s best days are behind it, and that all the action (and returns) are overseas.”

Look at the world’s stock markets in terms of sports teams’ dynasties, he suggests. The New York Yankees, the Montreal Canadians and the Boston Celtics stand out for their long spells of dominance. Of course, sports teams cannot maintain their leads forever, what with players aging out, ill-fated trades and plain old bad luck.

Economics and market capitalizations are different and much more long-lasting than the fortunes of sports franchises. The U.S. has a $30 trillion gross domestic product, versus China’s $19 trillion, per the International Monetary Fund. So the U.S. leads its nearest rival 3-2. The gap is much wider with market caps, according to the World Bank: The U.S. is ahead more than 4-1: at $56.5 trillion, whereas No. 2 China has just $11.8 trillion.

Indeed, China has expanded amazingly this century. Yet the U.S. lead is daunting. Faith in the U.S.’s from-the-ground-up innovative spirit and the nation’s rule of law out-do China’s centralized, politicized approach.

America blanks China and the rest of the planet owing to several factors, in Quinlan’s view: performance consistency, superior talent, strong leadership and adeptness at reinvention. Thus, the U.S. has grown 87% of the time since World War II. And with only 4.3% of the world’s population, the U.S. accounts for one-quarter of global output.

Tellingly, this share of global GDP has stayed at that level over the past half-century, despite the rise of Japan, China and other competitors, Quinlan notes. And while questions surround how the White House’s immigration policy will impact the nation, America still manages to attract vast amounts of overseas talent.

“We are a hydra-headed superpower, leading the world in such diverse activities as aerospace, agriculture, finance, energy, technology, healthcare, education and entertainment,” Quinlan observes.

Take technology. With the exceptions of South Korea and Israel, which are much smaller countries, the U.S. invests a bigger share in research and development than anyplace else, accounting for about 3.5% of GDP, according to Quinlan. The market values of top U.S. tech players overshadow the entire economies of most other nations, with Microsoft at $3.6 trillion; Nvidia, $3.5 trillion; and Apple, $3.0 trillion. The U.S. has more than half the world expenditure on R&D for artificial intelligence.

To be sure, the rest of the world may out-grow the U.S. at some point. Perhaps this year. Quinlan’s response: “So what? Great teams (economies) don’t win every year.” But, he goes on, “History is littered with one-and-done champions.” After all, he states, “America’s economic dynasty rests on one of the world’s strongest foundations.”