by Brandon Jarvis

A new report from the Department of Energy warns that, without increased energy production, the nation’s power grid could face a sharp rise in blackouts by 2030. In Virginia, Republicans are sounding the alarm, arguing that Democratic-led efforts to expand renewable energy and combat climate change are hindering the state’s ability to meet growing demands.

Virginia voters will elect a new governor this year who will lead the state for the next four years as it confronts the rising energy demand and the effects of climate change. They both recognize a need to increase energy supply, but their plans differ in how to accomplish it.

“The status quo of more generation retirements and less dependable replacement generation is neither consistent with winning the AI race and ensuring affordable energy for all Americans, nor with continued grid reliability,” the Department of Energy report states. “Absent intervention, it is impossible for the nation’s bulk power system to meet the AI growth requirements while maintaining a reliable power grid and keeping energy costs low for our citizens.”

Virginia leads the nation in data centers, with a dense cluster in Northern Virginia known as “Data Center Alley.” These data centers play a crucial role in the development of artificial intelligence (AI).

There is some agreement from both parties that energy and AI development are matters of national security.

The DOE report links grid reliability to national security, warning that falling short on energy production could give adversaries an edge in the global race for technological dominance. Senate Majority Leader Scott Surovell, D-Fairfax, who chairs the Commission on Electric Utility Regulation, recognizes the national security issue as a key point in the conversation about energy.

“It’s not just a supply problem, it’s also a demand problem,” he said. “What’s driving the grid problems in the PJM is the proliferation of data center demand, which is largely driven by the competition with China for superiority and artificial intelligence.”

Republicans have been working to roll back the Virginia Clean Economy Act since it was passed by the Democratic-controlled General Assembly in 2020. The law requires the state to transition to 100% clean energy by 2050.

“Unless the Democrats are talking about rolling back the Virginia Clean Economy Act, they’re not living in reality,” said Glenn Davis, who leads Virginia’s Department of Energy, during an interview with Virginia Scope.

“The Youngkin administration has been saying for years that we need to fast-track new gas power generation and lead the nation in SMRs to ensure that we have an affordable and reliable power grid for the future,” Davis continued. “And all reports coming out of the United States Department of Energy, PJM and our utilities are saying exactly that.”

According to the VCEA, utility companies, such as Dominion Energy, are required to produce a certain amount of renewable energy each year. If they miss the benchmark, they can purchase a Renewable Energy Certificate (REC) or make a deficiency payment.

Republicans attempted to remove the requirements for utility companies to make deficiency payments earlier this year, but the legislation was killed by Democrats.

“1990s energy policy is not a solution to 21st-century problems,” Surovell said Wednesday.

He pointed to the floods that ravaged Southwest Virginia last year, and more recently in Texas, that took the lives of more than 100 people, as evidence that climate change needs to continue to be a priority when discussing energy policy.

“Repeal [of VCEA] is not a solution,” Surovell said, while noting that he does believe some adjustments should be made.

In an interview with Newsmax, Republican gubernatorial nominee Winsome Earle-Sears said she supports an “all-of-the-above” approach to meeting energy demand.

“We will use clean coal, oil, renewables, nuclear, natural gas,” Earle-Sears said. “That’s a national security issue. The rogue nations of this world are not just going to do solar, and they’re not just going to do wind.”

Democratic gubernatorial nominee Abigail Spanberger released a plan this year that she said will lower energy costs for Virginians. The plan focuses on making Virginia energy independent and preventing data centers from driving up costs.

“Abigail knows that homegrown energy generation is the best way for Virginia to meet growing energy demand while driving down costs on Virginians’ energy bills,” a spokesperson for her campaign said Wednesday. “That’s why her Affordable Virginia Plan calls for partnering with localities across the commonwealth to incentivize the construction of new energy projects and encourages the development of new, high-tech technologies to expand production and grid capacity.”

Spanberger also wants to streamline “burdensome regulations” and speed up timelines for new energy projects, her campaign said.

Experts say the conversation around energy must also take into account the environmental consequences of increased carbon emissions.

“We only have one environment and we need to take care of it,” said Sean Sublette, a Richmond-based meteorologist. “I understand we also want to power our phones, and we want to power commerce – there are ways to do that with less impact on the environment.”

“Solar can also be deployed very rapidly onto the grid – much more rapidly than building a new gas plant or bringing some other coal-fired plant back up online,” Sublette continued.

As temperatures rise due to increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, more water evaporates, resulting in increased rainfall.

”It’s a heavier precipitation, which increases the risk of flooding,” Sublette said.

“Basically, this is just putting the weather on steroids,” he continued. “So a flood that would’ve happened anyway is probably gonna be worse.”

Republicans have had some short-lived successes in rolling back Democratic initiatives related to climate and energy.

After taking office in January 2022, Gov. Glenn Youngkin took steps to remove Virginia from the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative, commonly known as RGGI.

RGGI is a market-based cap-and-invest initiative. Regulated power plants in RGGI states must acquire one RGGI CO2 allowance for every short ton of CO2 they emit. States participating in RGGI distribute allowances at quarterly auctions, which power plants and other entities can purchase.

After joining the initiative in 2020 with 10 other states, Virginia made more than $227 million during the first year. The money is intended to be reinvested in low-income energy efficiency programs and a Community Flood Preparedness Fund.

A Circuit Court judge in Floyd County ruled against Youngkin in November, however, saying his actions removing Virginia from RGGI were unlawful. Virginia has not yet rejoined RGGI, as the Youngkin administration is appealing the decision.

During an interview with Virginia Scope in December, Spanberger stated that rejoining RGGI would be a priority for her.

“As we’re seeing some some real devastation in Virginia, recognizing that in a future where we rejoin RGGI, it’s not only important to the goal of reducing our state’s emissions and meeting some clean energy goals, which are incredibly important, but it’s also unbelievably valuable for our ability to use this revenue to make investments in our community,” Spanberger said.

Earle-Sears wrote on social media in December that she fully supported Youngkin’s decision to remove Virginia from RGGI.

As Virginia prepares to choose its next governor, the debate over how to balance climate concerns with growing energy demands will remain in the conversation. With both parties acknowledging the stakes for national security, economic competitiveness and environmental stability, the outcome of this year’s election could help shape the state’s energy future — and its role in powering the nation’s next wave of technological innovation.