Ethereum ETH/USD has tumbled 6%, falling below $4,200 over the past 24 hours as a prediction from a major crypto analyst seems to be playing out.

What Happened: In his latest update, Cowen noted the 21-week exponential moving average (EMA) as a critical level for Ethereum to consolidate and build momentum.

He explained that the test could occur through sideways price action rather than a sharp drop, aligning with Ethereum’s historical seasonal weakness in October versus Bitcoin BTC/USD.

Cowen drew parallels to prior post-halving cycles where ETH revisited the 21-week EMA before starting its final rally toward cycle highs.

He predicts this pattern could play out over the next 2–3 months, potentially pushing Ethereum past $5,000.

Despite anticipating a near-term correction or sideways movement, Cowen remains bullish on Ethereum’s long-term outlook. 

In his opinion, investors are advised to exercise patience, letting Ethereum test its support before riding the next upward leg, rather than attempting to time short-term moves.

Also Read: Bitcoin Crashes To $112,000 As ETH, XRP, Dogecoin Get Hit By Over $1 Billion In Long Liquidations

Bitcoin And Altcoins

Cowen also emphasized that altcoins currently outperform Ethereum following its August all-time high, with liquidity expected to rotate back into Ethereum once the 21-week EMA is tested, triggering the next major rally.

He notes broader cycle considerations, maintaining that Bitcoin’s cycle is likely to extend into Q4 2025, historically when major Bitcoin tops occur.

He identifies two weekly closes below Bitcoin’s 50-week moving average, currently around $98,000, as a key invalidation point for this bullish cycle thesis.

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