Cipher Mining Soars 50% as Bitcoin Sentiment Shifts—Does the Rally Match the Fundamentals?
September 28, 2025
If you have been debating what to do with Cipher Mining, you are not alone. This stock has had an attention-grabbing run, with the price rocketing up 50.1% over the past month and an astonishing 137.5% year-to-date. Even long-term holders are seeing eye-popping returns, boasting a 179.1% gain in the last year and a staggering 810.3% over the past three years. Clearly, something is happening here, whether the market is waking up to Cipher Mining’s potential or simply re-pricing risk after a wave of interest in digital assets and mining operations.
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Most recently, Cipher Mining’s price movements have tracked closely with headlines about improving sentiment around Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency ecosystem. As regulatory discussions become less heated and institutional interest trickles back into crypto infrastructure, investors appear more willing to assign higher multiples to companies like Cipher Mining. Still, all this excitement begs the question: does the stock actually offer value at these levels?
That is where our valuation score comes in. Cipher Mining currently earns a 2 out of 6, meaning it meets the undervalued criteria for two major valuation checks. For those weighing whether to jump in, stay put, or take profits, understanding these valuation measures is essential.
Let’s break down the different valuation approaches used to arrive at this score. Stick around, because at the end of this article, we will reveal a method for assessing value that cuts through the noise even more effectively.
Cipher Mining scores just 2/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.
A Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model estimates what a business is worth by forecasting its future cash flows and discounting them back to today’s value. This process provides an intrinsic value based on how much money the company is expected to generate in the future, adjusted for the time value of money.
For Cipher Mining, the DCF analysis considers the company’s Free Cash Flow (FCF), which currently stands at a loss of $409.3 million. Analysts project that FCF will turn positive, estimating $1.0 billion by 2029. Since analysts typically only forecast up to five years, projections from 2030 and beyond are extrapolated to give a sense of long-term growth and value. All numbers are in US dollars and reflect millions, unless otherwise indicated.
According to the DCF model, Cipher Mining’s estimated fair value per share is $30.96. This suggests the current stock price is trading at a 63.0% discount to its intrinsic valuation, implying the market may be significantly underestimating Cipher’s potential if these growth estimates prove accurate.
Result: UNDERVALUED
Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Cipher Mining is undervalued by 63.0%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover more undervalued stocks.
The Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio is a particularly useful valuation metric for companies like Cipher Mining that are still scaling their operations and may not yet be profitable. Unlike earnings-based multiples, the P/S ratio allows investors to value companies based on their revenue, which is often a more stable metric for fast-growing or early-stage tech and crypto firms.
It is important to understand that what counts as a “normal” or “fair” P/S ratio is influenced by growth expectations, the stability of revenue streams, and the perceived risks in the company’s business model. High-growth industries and businesses with robust revenue outlooks often warrant higher P/S ratios, while more mature or riskier firms typically trade below their sector’s average.
Cipher Mining currently trades at a P/S ratio of 28.4x, which is higher than the sector average of 5.4x and above its peer average of 23.3x. While these figures make the stock look expensive at first glance, Simply Wall St’s proprietary “Fair Ratio” model seeks to provide a deeper perspective by factoring in Cipher’s earnings growth potential, profit margins, industry trends, market cap, and specific risks unique to the business.
The Fair Ratio for Cipher Mining stands at 7.4x, meaning the stock’s P/S is well above what you might expect when accounting for all relevant company and industry-specific factors. This approach is more reliable than a simple peer or industry comparison as it is tailored to Cipher Mining’s unique profile.
Given that Cipher’s current P/S ratio of 28.4x is much higher than the Fair Ratio of 7.4x, the stock appears overvalued by this metric.
Result: OVERVALUED
PS ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.
Earlier, we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let’s introduce you to Narratives. A Narrative is a simple, powerful way for investors to tell their own story about a company by linking their perspective on Cipher Mining’s opportunities and risks to their assumptions around future revenue, earnings, margins, and ultimately, fair value.
Rather than relying solely on static ratios or analyst forecasts, Narratives connect the company’s story and outlook directly to a financial forecast, making your investment thesis data-driven and actionable. Narratives are easy to create and follow within the Simply Wall St Community page, which is already used by millions of investors.
They help you decide when to buy, hold, or sell by clearly showing where your Fair Value estimate stands compared to the current market price, and automatically update with every material change, such as new earnings results or breaking news, so you always have the latest view at your fingertips.
For example, one Narrative for Cipher Mining forecasts aggressive revenue growth and a fair value of $11.38, while another more cautious view values the company at just $6.00, illustrating how different investment stories shape different financial outcomes.
Do you think there’s more to the story for Cipher Mining? Create your own Narrative to let the Community know!
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include CIFR.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com
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