ETH has vigorously defended its 100-day EMA at nearly $3,850. It suggests bulls are unwilling to concede ground fully, and a corrective bounce could be underway. A retest of the former triangle support—now flipped into resistance—sits around $4,580.

From a trader’s lens, such retests often act as “confirmation moves.” If ETH fails to reclaim that barrier and turns lower, the bearish thesis strengthens, setting up a renewed slide toward $3,500.

On the other hand, a decisive rebound above $3,850 followed by sustained momentum could invalidate the bearish setup entirely.

In that case, Ethereum would be back inside its multimonth triangle, opening the door for a push toward its projected upside target at $5,800, a fresh record high.

Ethereum’s bounce comes against a backdrop of rising political drama in Washington. The odds of a  US government shutdown surged to over 60% on prediction markets this week, with lawmakers deadlocked over spending bills.