Daily market key data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.

1. Market Observations

Despite the shutdown of the U.S. federal government, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has urgently recalled key staff to ensure the release of the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which seems related to the statutory process for annual Social Security cost adjustments. The report, originally scheduled for October 15, is now expected to be released before the end of the month, ahead of the Federal Reserve’s crucial policy meeting this month, providing critical inflation data to the market. Against this backdrop, institutional interest in digital assets has not waned but grown. According to State Street’s ‘2025 Digital Asset Outlook’ report, over half of institutional investors expect their digital asset allocations to double within the next three years, with nearly 60% planning to increase holdings within the next year; more than 40% have already established dedicated digital asset departments. Institutions widely recognize the significant potential of asset tokenization to enhance transparency, trading efficiency, and reduce compliance costs, predicting that 10% to 24% of institutional portfolios will be tokenized by 2030, particularly in private markets and fixed-income sectors.

The price of Bitcoin continued to face selling pressure after falling below $120,000 yesterday. Analyst man of bitcoin noted that downward pressure would persist as long as the price remains below $123,801. Trader Roman also pointed out bearish divergence on higher timeframes characterized by low volume and lack of momentum, warning that the market might retest the low point of the $108,000 range. Skew similarly observed that the market may be dominated by new shorts in the short term. However, Credibull Crypto’s analysis suggested that $108,000 to $118,000 represents a critical demand zone, and any pullback above $108,000—the local invalidation level—would be considered within a ‘reasonable’ range. Trader crypto chase took the risk of adding positions after the price reclaimed $121,400, viewing it as the ‘last chance.’ Analyst Timo Oinonen, through MVRV ratio analysis, forecasted a Q4 price target between $140,000 and $150,000. Additionally, Bitcoin options worth $4.3 billion are set to expire soon, with the maximum pain point at $117,000 and a put/call ratio of 1.12, reflecting cautious sentiment in the options market.

Ethereum’s fundamentals continue to strengthen, with on-chain activity entering a ‘new normal.’ According to CryptoQuant data, its average daily internal contract calls have climbed above 9.5 million, driven by regulatory clarity, institutional capital inflows, and the booming tokenization of real-world assets (RWAs). The total value of the RWA sector has surged to $11.71 billion, with Ethereum accounting for over 56% of the dominant share. However, Kerrisdale Capital, a well-known short-selling firm, questioned the business model of holding Ethereum as treasury reserves, arguing that its premium is collapsing, though the firm explicitly stated it does not short Ethereum itself. In terms of price analysis, The DeFi Report noted that ETH is currently 92% above its 200-week moving average, with various models predicting a price range of $7,300 to $13,559, potentially breaking $10,000 under optimistic scenarios. Multiple analysts share similar views: ash crypto believes ETH is in a strong bull market, with support at $4,240 and resistance at $5,000, and a breakout could propel prices above $6,000 rapidly. Crypto Caesar suggested the current pullback might be the last washout before touching $10,000, while Jelle noted that ETH has broken out from a bullish megaphone pattern, targeting $10,000. Man of bitcoin emphasized that the price needs to sustainably break above $4,558 to confirm the end of a broader correction pattern. Options market data showed that $940 million worth of ETH options are set to expire at 16:00 today, with the maximum pain point at $4,430 and a put/call ratio of 0.9, indicating a slightly bullish bias in capital flows.

Possibly spurred by the positive news of listing on Robinhood US yesterday, the ZORA token surged over 62% in price within 24 hours. Meanwhile, Meme coins on the BSC chain remain hot, with Binance Wallet’s newly launched Meme Rush mode witnessing 13 wallets profit over $1 million through trading BNBHolder tokens within an hour of its launch. The token’s market cap once soared to nearly $170 million but has since narrowed to about $40 million. Additionally, following Binance co-founder He Yi’s publication of the article ‘Come! Let’s Cultivate Immortality Together!’, meme coin ‘Cultivating Immortality,’ inspired by the piece, quickly ignited the market, reaching a market cap of over $45 million and topping the Binance Meme Rush rankings. Yesterday, the Ethereum Foundation unveiled the ‘Kohaku’ roadmap, aiming to enhance wallet privacy and security through a modular framework. The first version will be presented as an Ambire Wallet extension and developed in collaboration with teams like Ambire and Railgun. Possibly influenced by this, the Railgun token RAIL broke above $5, surging over 120% in 24 hours, while the privacy-focused protocol Zcash (ZEC) briefly surpassed $270 before retreating, gaining 50% over 24 hours.

2. Key Data (as of 13:00 HKT on October 10)

(Data source: Coinglass, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, Tomars)

• Bitcoin: $121,713 (Year-to-date +29.92%), Daily Spot Trading Volume $66.2 Billion

• Ethereum: $4,366 (Year-to-date +30.15%), daily spot trading volume at $41.84 billion

• Fear & Greed Index: 54 (Neutral)

• Average GAS fee: BTC: 1.13 sat/vB, ETH: 0.15 Gwei

• Market Dominance: BTC 58.4%, ETH 12.7%

• Upbit 24-hour Trading Volume Ranking: IN, BTC, ETH, XRP, SOL

• 24-hour BTC Long/Short Ratio: 48.32%/51.68%

• Sector Performance: L2 sector down 4.98%, CeFi sector down 4.56%

• 24-hour Liquidation Data: A total of 167,517 people liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of $591 million, including $163 million in BTC liquidations, $153 million in ETH liquidations, and $35.6382 million in SOL liquidations

• BTC Medium- to Long-term Trend Channel: Upper boundary ($121,099.48), Lower boundary ($118,701.47)

• ETH Medium- to Long-term Trend Channel: Upper boundary ($4,453.19), Lower boundary ($4,365.01)

*Note: When the price is above the upper and lower boundaries, it indicates a medium to long-term bullish trend; conversely, it indicates a bearish trend. When the price fluctuates within the range or repeatedly crosses the cost range in the short term, it indicates a bottoming or topping state.

3. ETF Flows (as of October 9)

• Bitcoin ETF: +$198 million, marking the 9th consecutive day of net inflows

• Ethereum ETF: -$8.54 million, ending a streak of 8 consecutive days of net inflows

4. Today’s Outlook

• Aster will launch the second phase of its airdrop eligibility query at 21:00 on October 10

• Binance will remove the HOME/FDUSD, SPK/FDUSD, and USUAL/FDUSD spot trading pairs on October 10

• Binance will list the 50th HODLer airdrop project, Walrus (WAL), on October 10

• Linea (LINEA) will unlock approximately 1.08 billion tokens at 7:00 PM on October 10, representing 6.57% of the current circulating supply, with a value of approximately $29.6 million

• Babylon (BABY) will unlock approximately 321 million tokens at 6:00 PM on October 10, representing 24.74% of the current circulating supply, with an estimated value of USD 17.4 million.

• PINGPONG (PINGPONG) will unlock approximately 518 million tokens on October 11, representing 1.23% of the current circulating supply, with an estimated value of USD 46.17 million.

• Holoworld AI (HOLO) will unlock approximately 109 million tokens on October 11, representing 5.37% of the current circulating supply, with an estimated value of USD 28 million.

Top gainers among the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization today: Zcash up 53.8%, ChainOpera AI up 16.8%, Litecoin up 9.5%, Bittensor up 6.3%, and NEAR Protocol up 4.8%.

5. Hot News

• Fanable has secured USD 11.5 million in funding and launched $COLLECT token staking rewards.

• He Yi: It is rumored that BNB Chain will support similar Meme Rush products from other wallets in the future.

• Deutsche Bank: Central banks may include Bitcoin and gold as key reserves by 2030.

• Short-selling firm Kerrisdale Capital announces short position in BitMine, an Ethereum treasury company.

• Monad: The airdrop claim portal will open on October 14.

• A Hyperliquid whale is suspected of having its private key stolen, resulting in losses exceeding $20 million.

• A wallet suspected to belong to Galaxy Digital deposited 6.1 million ASTER into Binance over the past 24 hours, worth approximately $12.08 million.

• Insiders controlling 60% of YEPE have sold part of their tokens, earning a profit of $1.4 million.

• Ethereum developers have released the Kohaku roadmap to bring privacy and security enhancements to wallets.

• Publicly listed company Leap Therapeutics completed a $58.88 million private placement to initiate its digital asset financial strategy.

• Opinion, a prediction market invested in by YZi Labs, hinted at the launch of its mainnet points program.

• Bisheng Capital has established a $100 million BNB ecosystem special fund, supported by Nano Labs.

• Thirteen wallets have earned over $1 million through BNBHolder since the launch of Meme Rush.

• The Ocean Protocol Foundation has exited the ‘ASI Alliance,’ and $OCEAN trading may resume.