Bitcoin and the broader crypto market have ticked up despite macro headwinds, with data suggesting a shift in market dynamics as large bag holders hold firm despite the wipeout in leveraged positions earlier this month.

The “dolphin” cohort has continued Bitcoin accumulation even after the Black Friday event that liquidated $19 billion from the markets, keeping the bull run’s long-term structure intact, according to a CryptoQuant report on Thursday. 

The trading and market analysis firm defines a dolphin as an entity holding between 100 BTC and 1,000 BTC. That differs from whales, which hold amounts above that upper range.

“Their behavior plays a decisive role in shaping market direction as a growing accumulation from this group historically aligns with upward price momentum,” CryptoQuant analysts wrote.

While the annual holdings growth of this investor group is considered “strong” at 907,000 BTC, the report highlights near-term caution, noting how the 30-day balance has fallen below its 30-day moving average, signaling that short-term demand is waning. 

A catalyst, such as sustained inflows from exchange-traded funds, could trigger renewed bullish momentum, analysts previously told Decrypt.

“The current setup for Bitcoin and Ethereum is rare,” Quinn Thompson, CIO of Lekker Capital, said in a Monday tweet, referring to the Black Friday liquidation cascade. “Opportunity ahead is similar to pre-Trump victory ’24.”

That view is supported by historical data. 

After a 30% to 40% rise in open interest, as seen on October 10, there’s a 75% chance that Bitcoin’s return in the next three months is positive, according to Valter Rebelo, head of digital assets at Empiricus, in a Thursday tweet. 

The analysis noted that Bitcoin’s mean performance in the next 90 days is around 25.9%.

Bitcoin and Ethereum are up roughly 2% over 24 hours, but altcoins like World Liberty Financial, Hyperliquid, and Solana have posted 13%, 5.9%, and 5.8% returns respectively, per CoinGecko data. 

And there’s hope for renewed bullish momentum and investor risk appetite, as seen in the uptick in altcoin volume dominance relative to Bitcoin and Ethereum. 

While trading volume for the top two cryptocurrencies by market cap has tanked since October 21, altcoin volume has ticked up by 33% to 46%, per CoinGlass data, in a possible sign that traders have once again begun speculating on the broader crypto market.