Historically, ETH rallies have accelerated after reclaiming the +1σ line, with the next statistically stretched zone around +2σ aligning with the $5,000–$5,200 range.

The model’s structure supports this outlook: the realized price continues to trend higher, showing fresh inflows, while the lower deviation bands are curling upward, both signs of a strengthening, not exhausted, bull phase.

Ethereum’s recent consolidation takes the shape of a bull flag, a continuation pattern that typically appears after strong uptrends. The structure, defined by two downward-sloping parallel trendlines, reflects a period of profit-taking that often precedes renewed buying pressure.