You’re reading this week’s edition of the New Cannabis Ventures weekly newsletter, which we have been publishing since October 2015. The newsletter includes unique insight to help our readers stay ahead of the curve as well as links to the week’s most important news. We no longer send these by email as we did in the past, but we post this and all of the newsletters on our website here.
Friends,
A year ago, people were extremely excited about the American cannabis industry. President Biden had followed through on his 2022 suggestion and was pushing rescheduling, and that was in process. Also, Florida was on the verge of legalizing for adult-use. The Global Cannabis Stock Index closed on 10/31 at 8.22 and is now 14.7% lower, closing on 10/29 at 7.01, up just 1.9% year-to-date. Big ETF MSOS, which closed recently at 4.52, a premium to its 4.48 net asset value, is up 18.6% year-to-date but down 31.5% since the end of October a year ago. Looking at the 5 largest MSOs since then, they are all down:
In 2025, they are all up except for Green Thumb Industries, which has dropped 14.1%. GTI has the best balance sheet by far of these five companies. The worst balance sheet belongs to Curaleaf, which is down just 1% since last Halloween and is up a stunning 83.3% in 2025.
In my view, things could get very spooky. It’s not clear to me who is doing this, but someone is playing a big game through MSOS. The ETF has seen its share-count increase 44.2% so far in 2025, a massive increase. The MSOs have very low valuations and are beaten up badly over the past almost five years since they peaked in early 2021, but, if 280E taxation remains in place, they could get crushed due to their balance sheets and cash flows.
The games go beyond the MSO space, with many traders rolling the dice on Tilray Brands. Over the last month, the stock has averaged more than 108 million shares per day of trading. In 2025, the stock is up 2.3%, in lie with the Global Cannabis Stock Index, but it has been volatile. The stock has dropped by 41.4% from its 52-week high set after the company reported its fiscal Q1 financials on 10/9. Even with this large decline, it trades 288% above its all-time low set in June. Sales and earnings are not rising much, but the share-count sure has. Oh, but its a meme stock…
Last week, the newsletter included a chart of the year-to-date returns for the 28 stocks that are in the Global Cannabis Stock Index. Nine were up more than 20%, while six were down more than 20%. A week later, there are still nine that have gained more than 20% (the same nine), and six that are down more than 20% (five previous members and one new one). Looking at the nine big winners, a few had a tough week, declining more than the 0.3% decline since then in the Global Cannabis Stock Index:
Seven of these nine big winners in 2025 are down in October, and five have dropped more than the Global Cannabis Stock Index this month. Trick or treat, friends! Watch out for the goblins!
Sincerely,
Alan
New Cannabis Ventures publishes curated articles as well as exclusive news. Here is what we published this past week:
To get real-time updates, follow Alan on X.com. You can also share and discover industry news with like-minded people on the largest cannabis investor and entrepreneur group on LinkedIn.
Based in Houston, Alan leverages his experience as founder of online community 420 Investor, the first and still largest due diligence platform focused on the publicly-traded stocks in the cannabis industry. With his extensive network in the cannabis community, Alan continues to find new ways to connect the industry and facilitate its sustainable growth. At New Cannabis Ventures, he is responsible for content development and strategic alliances. Before shifting his focus to the cannabis industry in early 2013, Alan, who began his career on Wall Street in 1986, worked as an independent research analyst following over two decades in research and portfolio management. A prolific writer, with over 650 articles published since 2007 at Seeking Alpha, where he has 70,000 followers, Alan is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and a frequent source to the media, including the NY Times, the Wall Street Journal, Fox Business, and Bloomberg TV. Contact Alan: Twitter | Facebook | LinkedIn | Email
You’re reading this week’s edition of the New Cannabis Ventures weekly newsletter, which we have been publishing since October 2015. The newsletter includes unique insight to help our readers stay ahead of the curve as well as links to the week’s most important news. We no longer send these by email as we did in the past, but we post this and all of the newsletters on our website here.
Friends,
A year ago, people were extremely excited about the American cannabis industry. President Biden had followed through on his 2022 suggestion and was pushing rescheduling, and that was in process. Also, Florida was on the verge of legalizing for adult-use. The Global Cannabis Stock Index closed on 10/31 at 8.22 and is now 14.7% lower, closing on 10/29 at 7.01, up just 1.9% year-to-date. Big ETF MSOS, which closed recently at 4.52, a premium to its 4.48 net asset value, is up 18.6% year-to-date but down 31.5% since the end of October a year ago. Looking at the 5 largest MSOs since then, they are all down:
In 2025, they are all up except for Green Thumb Industries, which has dropped 14.1%. GTI has the best balance sheet by far of these five companies. The worst balance sheet belongs to Curaleaf, which is down just 1% since last Halloween and is up a stunning 83.3% in 2025.
In my view, things could get very spooky. It’s not clear to me who is doing this, but someone is playing a big game through MSOS. The ETF has seen its share-count increase 44.2% so far in 2025, a massive increase. The MSOs have very low valuations and are beaten up badly over the past almost five years since they peaked in early 2021, but, if 280E taxation remains in place, they could get crushed due to their balance sheets and cash flows.
The games go beyond the MSO space, with many traders rolling the dice on Tilray Brands. Over the last month, the stock has averaged more than 108 million shares per day of trading. In 2025, the stock is up 2.3%, in lie with the Global Cannabis Stock Index, but it has been volatile. The stock has dropped by 41.4% from its 52-week high set after the company reported its fiscal Q1 financials on 10/9. Even with this large decline, it trades 288% above its all-time low set in June. Sales and earnings are not rising much, but the share-count sure has. Oh, but its a meme stock…
Last week, the newsletter included a chart of the year-to-date returns for the 28 stocks that are in the Global Cannabis Stock Index. Nine were up more than 20%, while six were down more than 20%. A week later, there are still nine that have gained more than 20% (the same nine), and six that are down more than 20% (five previous members and one new one). Looking at the nine big winners, a few had a tough week, declining more than the 0.3% decline since then in the Global Cannabis Stock Index:
Seven of these nine big winners in 2025 are down in October, and five have dropped more than the Global Cannabis Stock Index this month. Trick or treat, friends! Watch out for the goblins!
Sincerely,
Alan
New Cannabis Ventures publishes curated articles as well as exclusive news. Here is what we published this past week:
Exclusives
Canadian Cannabis Sales Ascended in August to Record Level
Financials
Verano Q3 Revenue Falls 6%
To get real-time updates, follow Alan on X.com. You can also share and discover industry news with like-minded people on the largest cannabis investor and entrepreneur group on LinkedIn.
View the Public Cannabis Company Revenue & Income Tracker, which ranks the top revenue producing cannabis stocks.
Stay on top of some of the most important communications from public companies by viewing upcoming cannabis investor calendar.
Get Our Sunday Newsletter
In This Article:
280E, AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF, Cresco Labs, CRLBF, Curaleaf, curlf, Green Thumb Industries, gtbif, msos, tcnnf, Tilray Brands, TLRY, trulieve, verano, vrnof
Related News:
Verano Q3 Revenue Falls 6%
Canadian Cannabis Sales Ascended in August to Record Level
Cannabis Stocks Could Get Crushed Further
Big Cannabis Companies Are Set to Report Q3 Financials