Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) is down 4% on Monday, leading experts to question whether the crypto giant will continue to follow its historic four-year market cycles.

What Happened: CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju highlighted that while Bitcoin’s fundamentals remain solid, structural shifts in liquidity sources are reshaping its behavior:

• The average holder cost basis is around $55,900, leaving wallets up ~93% on average. Realized cap rose by $8 billion this week, reflecting steady inflows, though gains are capped by profit-taking.
• New inflows mainly come from ETFs and corporate treasuries, while centralized exchange traders and miners are already up roughly 2x, reducing their buying urgency.
• The market cap vs. realized cap gap signals a moderate bull phase, with $1 trillion in inflows supporting a $2 trillion valuation.
• Whale profits remain contained, either the market is too mature for euphoria or the next parabolic phase hasn’t started.
• Leverage is elevated, yet Bitcoin collateral on futures exchanges is dropping, showing lower conviction among longs.
• Hashrate keeps climbing, a long-term bullish sign, but slowing ETF and MicroStrategy demand has softened momentum.

Ki concluded that the classic retail-whale rotation cycle may be breaking down, as institutional liquidity now drives the market, making Bitcoin’s future cycles less predictable.

Also Read: Bitcoin Chart Looks ‘Bearish,’ But ‘Risk Is Dropping Behind the Scenes,’ Says Popular Analyst

What’s Next: Coin Bureau’s Nic Puckrin called October a rare disappointment, marking only the third time in history (after 2014 and 2018) Bitcoin didn’t rally that month.

Still, he noted BTC’s resilience, having absorbed 405 BTC in sell pressure from legacy holders while holding above $100,000 since May.

Puckrin expects a volatile November, citing macro uncertainty from the U.S. government shutdown and falling odds of a Fed rate hike in December, but remains long-term bullish.

He says quantitative tightening is ending, global liquidity is improving, and fiat currencies are weakening, reinforcing Bitcoin’s strength amid short-term turbulence.

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